Although the timing of my message may have been
appropriate relative to the news release from BOL, in my mind
I think the BOL news confirmed that it won't be LUX
buying the sunglass unit. Why would BOL hire an outside
firm to analyze the possibilities, if they could have
come to an agreement with LUX on their own. Unless???
the negotiations got to a point where they couldn't
agree on a price and BOL brought these outsiders in as
mediators to determine fair market value. Anything is
possible I guess.
I belive someone posted $400 mil because their
worldwide revenues for 1997 were $467 mill. We all know
that they have not shown a profit for many years, but
inter-company transfers have probably made them the whipping
post. It will take someone a long time in due diligence
before arriving at a final price if it ever get's that
Let's remember who is #1 in the North
America market place from an optical frame point of view.
A company called Marchon. I would not count them
out of the BOL bidding race. LUX has Briko, Safilo
has Smith, Marchon has no one. Just a thought. This
will be about bragging rights. There will be no
shortages of ego's involved in this purchase.
There have been several numbers thrown around the
board which warrant comment.
No doubt some
laser eye refractive correction procedures do cost 4K,
however I think the typical cost is now 1K - 2K. (In most
cases, laser discussions are per eye and not referancing
The demographics of the US population is certainly
very favorable to the eye care industry, but a
doubling in five years is vastly over-stated. The US pop.
grows around 2%/yr. I think the eyewear pop. grows an
incremental 1 or at most 2% more than that. Meaningful but a
long way from 2X in 5 yrs. Accelerated product
purchase cycles and upgraded product seelctions likely are
greater components of growth.
spectacles have an annual US market of around 90 million, or
180 million eyes. Laser procedures are around 0.4
million eyes. Lasers are in rapid growth and certainly
will affect the industry, but now and for the next few
years at minimum, the laser (on a unit basis) will be
barely measurable in the overall market. (The $ impact
will be much greater, I acknowledge.)
has posted a 400 million price for B&L's Rayban
division. Has anyone seen this published? A guess only?
Any further views on solid numbers about the industry
would enhance the utlitity of the board.
Taking a 17% gain over a 1 or 2 week period is a
move I wish I had made.Until LUX comes up with some
positive news this type of activity will continue.Congrats
lisciano.My previous statement(503) seems to be confirming
I too am tired of Lisceno(sic) coming and going.
Because of the name one might believe that this person
had inside knowledge; however, after having read this
board since it began, I think that person has little
more than a large ego.
As for Ray Ban... at
this time no upscale optical would carry them.
However, they did have a good name at one time. Perhaps
they could do so again. Just a thought.
Do you think that LUX is so smart and BOL isn't
You think LUX can just step in and make maoney on
BTW the price on RayBan is 400 Million.
Pretty big price for a Name.
I would run for the
hills if LUX buys RayBan. Don't forget, its not exactly
easy for LUX to sell what they already make ! I think
400 M can be put to better use.
If lux bought Ray-Ban they would probably just be
buying the name. They would most likley take over
production, sales, and stop the Huge discounting. It's just a
name game. Lux would have no problem making money!
As far as vision correction! It is still $4000 a
pop! And the Baby Boomers are getting older!!! In 5
Years there will be twice as many people that need
correction than today!!!! They still don't even Know if
corrective surgery lasts.
bigger looming problems for LUX. Of course they
are rumored to be trying to buy RayBan. The only
problem is RayBan has been a money looser since 1995. If
they do buy market could react negatively as it would
be another drain on earnings. It just doesn't make
sense. The other big issue is the rapid advancement of
vision correction surgery.
Good analysis. LUX has enough glasses to sell
without buying more to sell. I don't see it. In addition
BOL would not announce to the world that the division
is for sale if buyers were beating down it's
LUX needs to get help SELLING the lines they now
have. Um who could it be now.