Oil is going to $80 bbl this year and a spike to $100 is very possible if Iran continues toward a nuclear weapon. Personally I have 30% of my 401k in oil and oil services. Oil production has peaked and demand is growing. How many bbl's of oil does the US use in a day? How about the world? What's the growth rate of demand in China? How much does China use a day? At what rate are the Mexican's, Kuwaitee's, Norwiegen and Britain's oil field production dropping every year? How long will it take for the Canadian Oil Sands production to reach 5 million bbls per day? If you can't answer 75% of these questions then you will fear an oil investment. IF you can answer 100% and more you would have 30% of your 401k in oil. And FAIRX should be buying more. IMHO
21Million, 84 mill, ~10%, 6 Million, on average Mexico and Canada are our biggest suppliers, at current rates of export to the US Canada will not be able to export to us in 5-10 years, 10 years.
Agreed....and Bruce wrote himself in the annual letter a year or two ago that he should have bought more of Canadian Oil Sands Trust (COSWF), and in my opinion left the position way too early. It appreciated greatly after FAIRX sold out of it but that is sometimes the price to be paid for the 'margin of safety.'
Just discovered this board. I think Yahoo must have started message boards for mutual funds at the beginning of the year.
My biggest concern with this fund is the energy exposure.
I would definitely like to see less exposure to the Energy sector. It has served FAIRX well over the last five years but I am concerned about future growth. On the other hand, energy has sold off alot lately so we're due for a rebound.
It will be interesting to see how FAIRX performs once the energy sector is out of favor long term.
Disclosure: FAIRX is the #2 holding in my portfolio behind DODGX.