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Fairholme Message Board

  • jadsterxx jadsterxx Jan 6, 2007 7:08 PM Flag

    Oil & Gas/Canada exposure for FAIRX

    Anybody else worried about this Fund's exposure to energy?

    I guess you just have to trust Berkowitz...he's run this ship great so far.

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    • Oil is going to $80 bbl this year and a spike to $100 is very possible if Iran continues toward a nuclear weapon. Personally I have 30% of my 401k in oil and oil services. Oil production has peaked and demand is growing. How many bbl's of oil does the US use in a day? How about the world? What's the growth rate of demand in China? How much does China use a day? At what rate are the Mexican's, Kuwaitee's, Norwiegen and Britain's oil field production dropping every year? How long will it take for the Canadian Oil Sands production to reach 5 million bbls per day? If you can't answer 75% of these questions then you will fear an oil investment. IF you can answer 100% and more you would have 30% of your 401k in oil. And FAIRX should be buying more. IMHO

      21Million, 84 mill, ~10%, 6 Million, on average Mexico and Canada are our biggest suppliers, at current rates of export to the US Canada will not be able to export to us in 5-10 years, 10 years.

    • Just discovered this board. I think Yahoo must have started message boards for mutual funds at the beginning of the year.

      My biggest concern with this fund is the energy exposure.

      I would definitely like to see less exposure to the Energy sector. It has served FAIRX well over the last five years but I am concerned about future growth. On the other hand, energy has sold off alot lately so we're due for a rebound.

      It will be interesting to see how FAIRX performs once the energy sector is out of favor long term.

      FAIRX is the #2 holding in my portfolio behind DODGX.

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