I have shares in three (3) separate accounts, 1 IRA and 2 in taxable accounts. Thankfully, I qualify for long-term gains, having held for as long as 43 months on many shares. Furthermore, I am happy to say that I am FINALLY green on all shares.
I am NOT sure how I will handle my shares for the upcoming events and am curious if folks here have formulated concrete plans.
Will you sell some, or even all, before:
1) An AdCom vote, if there is one.
2) Before the PDUFA decision
3) Immediately after the decision
I know it's probably foolish of me, but I'm thinking that there will be a strong pullback after approval. Furthermore, if there is an AdCom with a very positive panel vote, I'm thinking the most of the runup will be to the approval date.
I've got plenty of time to think about it, but need to make up my mind. What I'm hoping for is NO AdCom and a runup through the middle of April that might approach $3.00 per share. If we got into the $3.00 range, right now, I'm thinking I would definitely sell some shares and maybe even all of them. Can we get to $3.00 before the approval date, ya' think?
I'm enjoying the runup, but there's LOTS to be thinking about.
I sure hope my neighbor gets back in time to help me, especially now that I've got LB on ignore.
I've been in and out since '09 or so, trading peaks and valleys. I went completely out a couple of times in the duration but I'm currently holding a core of shares till the April run-up and will continue to trade the peaks and dips between now and then. I see this potentially at $3 or higher mid-April but if any number of positive announcements are made (like moving to a real exchange) all bets are off and this could fly like HGSI or DNDN did before they retreated. It all depends on events to come. One big concern is our number one loose cannon. As long as SB keeps his stupid mouth shut, we're likely in for a nice ascent, that's for sure. Meantime, I share the opinion expressed by Shred's post of 1-15 about the trading ranges. That's pretty much an alternate route on Titan's roadmap and as likely, or more so, than my own speculations. Even at today's price, I think with all things considered, Titan's still way undervalued given the deal they just made and the potential for Probuphine. Frankly, Fanapt was never even close in potential to Probuphine. It's a MUCH needed alternative to other treatment methods and think what you will, in my opinion pain PILLS are on their way out. The future's all about solutions for much needed abuse deterence, a problem made to order for this product to help solve. If the FDA can slam Darvon and Darvocet 30 years on the market, what do you suppose they'll do when there's a REAL alternative to the other delivery forms of OXY and opiods in general, most especially the pill formats. Suppose ProNeura could be manufactured to dispense shorter term pain meds, not just the long term method for drug withdrawal. That's just wild speculation on my part but the future's all about alternatives to PILLS and NEEDLES I think, and Probuphine has a great shot, at least in the near term, at dominating the alternative solution market....just my opinion of course.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Jodiesandy: Excellent post. I could not have said it better. I share your trepidation over S.B.'s tendency to create unintended negative consequences with certain of his comments when no comment or a simple informative unambiguous remark would do. I also understand your long term frustration with such things. However,I'm pleased that you're now able to focus on the bare facts,science and chronology and appreciate the position we are in as shareholders.
Ultimately I blame myself for not doing more DD at a point in time when I allowed myself to become confused by certain comments made by S.B. However, I believe the "nitty gritty" comments during the C.C. of mid-August,2011 did nothing long term to increase investor confidence and had the effect of creating a degree of anticipation,imminence, that was unnecessary. Other carefully chosen words could have gone a long way toward making the16 month wait for a signed licensing agreement a lot easier,particularly for long term investors,the ones who paid the bills during the darkest days when momentum or short term traders wouldn't have touched this co.
Hopefully such events are behind us and all future comments will be carefully chosen and monitored. In the final analysis I must remind myself that no one put a gun to my head to induce me to invest in Titan and I always have the option of selling if I can't abide the methods of top management. GLTY&L
arbys fish combo,, also got a 2 fer 5 beef/cheddar 1 will be given to the dog,,
belize isnt a bad place been there a few times belize city , as for the BMWs dont be disgruntled he just leasing them out possibly for his business like most do!
Here is a more analytical way of deciding when to sell. Using two companies whose primary business is collecting royalties, PDLI and VNDA, the stock price as a multiple of royalty revenues is between 3 and 4. If we assume that a similiar multiple is good for TTNP, then we can get a ballpark range for the stock price. Assuming a 15% royalty rate and $400 million in sales, you get royalties of $60 million per year. Multiply by the 3-4 range for the stock price to revenues and you get a value for the stock of $180-$240 million. Divide by the shares outstanding and it gives you a price range of $1.80 to $2.40 per share assuming 100 million shares outstanding. Call it hand gernade math, but it brackets the value of the stock within a range. We all know that stocks are sometimes overvalued and sometimes undervalued so the price can well be above or below this range.
The stock has more than double in past 90 days and for good reason. Hopefully there is more room to run. I hold 17k after recently selling some at $1.70. I will sell more as the price rises, hoping to catch most of the price increase but recognizing that TTNP is having its day in the sun and it is good to make hay (take profits) while the sun shines.
Just one man's opinion. GLTA
Hi red.........thanks for the excellent post, based on some hard and real numbers. All ovals are perfect circles and all rectangles aren't squares, but your numbers bear serious consideration, especially as they parallel the kind of pricing that Jason Napodano has held fast to at the $2.50 mark. You may a bit on the low side, if one were to allow for the milestone dollars, but still........I think the $2.00 to $3.00 range appears most reasonable.......with the chance that momentum pile-on might run it past that.......if only for a while. It may well be that $3.00 is the high water mark, at least from a discliplined perspective.
GOOD LUCK to YOU on your TTNP, whatever you decide to do with your remaining shares. I am probably gone at $3.00, if we can ever get there.
Certainly not wanting to give any tax advice, but if you pledge or annually donate to a religious, educational or charitable organization you might want to look into donating appreciated long term gain shares instead of cash. Don't know what is going on with the tax code now, but if things haven't changed you may still be able to donate the shares and take a full deduction for the appreciated value without having to recognize any gain. Just sharing some thoughts...
I've been around since 2005 and in general have timed the buys and sells pretty well. I have 16k shares at a cost average at $0.97 and will probably wait until the price hits $2.5 before selling 6k to cover the price and let the 10k ride it out
Sentiment: Strong Buy
If TTNP didn't have so many under water shareholders we would be north of $3.00 a share right now but you know how it goes they get back or close to even & gladly unload after being down for so long. They are blinded to whats finally happening and that TTNP will finally be the company they originally thought they would be. We are working through the old shares and soon to $3.00
Hi Stalyon, still have NOT sold a single share. Won't get chased out early by the lowball pps.
Most stocks in our position will have a runup til post approval. Then, they dip down, usually due to mass selling by the PDUFA chasers. IF, our "horrible management" adds anything new to our story(PD, or pain management, or even a GREAT PR announcing possible licensing with EU or ROW. Or a move to the NASDAQ), then all bets are off. We will see big gap ups. Then, it's simply a matter of deciding whether or not to wait for the actual sales figures, or take profits. GLTY
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I understand the potential for additional catalysts and certainly appreciated the effect of the momo traders, but there has to be a realisitc market cap value on the near-term horizon. Trying to identify/quantify it, balancing against the option to hold for sales traction, is extremely difficult for me. I sense that the massive retailer ownership quotient will play into the volatility of the price as triggers approach and activate. My feeling is that institutional ownership will provide stability and "logic" to the price action. I wish we had institutional participation......and that is a concern.
The scenery will only get more amazing as we continue the ride onwards and upwards! Enjoy this ride as it only gets better with each new day.....my hat is off to all longs who have waited so long for days like these!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I expect to keep on holding!
Titan is my "high risk/high reward" or "longshot" play. The gains will be pretty good at 3.00, don't get me wrong. I might look at my accounts at 3.00 and consider it.... but... right now I'm planning to let it keep riding and playing for the big win. Say, maybe 5 more years.
A "jackpot" potential for Titan could be in a chronic pain indication for probuphine, but I am expecting the PD treatment to dwarf probuphine (for any and all its possible indications).
The sixth month stready release of dopamine is the absolute best thing imaginable for managing Parkinson's disease. I think Sunil and Co. are going to pass on every buy-out offer until someone includes a BIG amount of money for that treatment. They have more shares than I do. :)
Been in for 5 years,
I can wait another 5.