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Titan Pharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

  • proofkorea2002 proofkorea2002 Apr 17, 2013 11:29 PM Flag

    Percentage of the pain market can TTNP get?

    The SA article the other day says the pain market in North America is over 20 billion USD annually and 50 billion USD globally. What percentage can TTNP get? It is my understanding that Braeburn will go after this market in every way possible.

    My estimates for Prob for addiction is 400mil annually for North America and an equal amount ROW. That alone at 2x rev is 10$ a share. Add in pain... what do you have? Then add in other apps such as PD, depression, schizo...

    With each passing day and no news of a delay, the probability of approval increases.

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    • Well, if it could get 1%... that would be 200 million/year (on top of addiction sales). That is 1% of US pain market.... not global.

      Needless to say, the pain indication has much greater opportunity than addiction.

    • Well, if its conjecture we are looking for, I would say that successful studies for using Prob for treating pain would preclude its off label use for pain. Otherwise, what premise would any doctor base their decision on to use it for pain? A wild guess, instead of just continuing to prescribe opiates for pain and throw a few extra pills in the bottle for the wife's anxieties?

    • The only part of your comments I do not completely agree with is "with each passing day". I am not a fan of NO news is GOOD news. NO news is just that when it comes to dealings with the FDA. I have learned to simply not trust anything associated with them until I read "Titan's Probuphine receives FDA Approval".

      GLTU and all Longs

      Sentiment: Buy

    • They won't get any of it until they do dosing studies at lower doses.

      Maybe it gets used off label, but I think that is going to be rare until they have data on different doses.

      • 3 Replies to nowak488
      • Being that I am in hospitals very often and I am not afraid to stop people and ask them questions. I was in a prominent hospital in Long Beach California last week and I happened to see a physician wearing scrubs that had " Pain Management" inscribed on them. So I asked this gentlemen a few questions. Do you perscribe buprenorphine for pain? YES usually butrans Why? because it is less addictive than OXY. Have you heard of Probuphine? No...I explained to him what it is and said would you use this for pain even if it was off label? He said ABSOLUTELY and clarified " so this is a sub Q rod that elutes bup for 6 months very interesting". Dr. do you have any issue implanting a product like this? " Son I put neuro stimulators in patients spine everyday so the answer is no". Last question Dr. do you think the average addiction specialist would? " NO" but they would probably refer them to me"

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • Technically you are correct Jon. However, I 'd like to qualify that "off-label" statement you made by saying the final REMS has not yet been published and consequently it isn't yet certain what restrictions, if any, the FDA may apply that would deter or completely eliminate any possible off-label usage. This "leap to judgment" (and for now that is precisely what it is) we're all making about such "dosing study" parameters as they may or may not apply to future product lines due to admonitions or guidance provided post-approval by the FDA is a variable without foundation until such time as the FDA's approval decision and its scope is actually known. Meantime, I'll remind any who are interested that the Titan Braeburn deal is for North America and any use of Probuphine ROW may also include pain, dependent upon individual national governance and any future/other partnership alliances as well. I'm not being argumentative for the sake of arguing here but a lot of speculation tends to build upon assumptions, which are themselves but someone's speculation. We should remain attached to as many "knowns" as possible at this stage. While the discussion of additional dosing studies has been topical, and was even explored during commentary by panelists during the Adcom, there is no formal directive that establishes any additional study requirement at this point. The clinical study design for Probuphine, as you know, was for the specified dosing range only and that is the central point which advances Titan's NDA to, and advocates for, a Probuphine approval. Once we begin to debate additional study requirements as if they're a given, we're leaping to a conclusion that should not yet been drawn and certainly directly contradicts the facts of the New Drug Application before the FDA at this juncture.

      • Thank you. I am expecting Sunil to have a CC after approval and mention uplisting and the launch. I am also hoping to hear about studies on dosage and pain studies.
        So, how long will those studies take?... tough to say? and once they are done, what is a reasonable market share of the global pain market, some 50B annually?

 
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