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Telefonica Brasil, S.A. Message Board

  • dbergh1 dbergh1 Mar 12, 2008 8:17 PM Flag

    higher math stuff.

    What kind of higher math??

    JASO (seemingly) good news to expect a pop. So I would end up playing a stock that SHOULD go up instead of one that IS going up.

    Just as bad as spits XXX life on TV ALL DAY,
    KNOW CNBC is going to interview his pens, for the smaller details,

    I just cannot believe it

    Hey Madd
    Go to stock charts and put in (FEED) see how it is trending flat in NOV to DEC then a pop. Then it drops and starts over but in a up word trend
    Can your scanner pick either one of those up? If you draw a trend line at the low in DEC to the pop it dose not break it

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    • Be back to read more.

      • 1 Reply to dbergh1
      • sma's, ema's, rsi, full stochastic, williams%, cci, sometimes MACD (this indicator inspired me toward my top secret formula). All of these indicators lag, which is a problem (to a degree).

        I used to compare (5 min scale) RSI(9) to CCI(100). I used to compare 5 X RSI(9) to CCI(100). If the CCI(100) was above this number, it was a go. Then I'd confirm with Stoch and Wm%. Finally, I'd move. But no real enter or exit strategy or philosophy. It was like looking at monkeys (see below). All that and it still didn't predict well enough for me. Then I did a far more complex analysis, read studies that were published, and the results were mostly winners, but I didn't really have a REASON or philosophy, I was just tying to find the needle in the haystack.

        You could track 10 monkeys banging typewriters and find some kind of a weird predictive pattern (for a while, not forever). Eventually one would type the complete works of Shakespeare! All I was doing was staring at monkeys.

        Then I listened to the GURU's who had "proven" systems. It's like the story about the GURU who sent out 1000 letters, 500 saying XXX would go up, 500 saying it would go down. The next day he'd send the 500 winners another prediction (250 up / 250 down). Then he send the winning half another letter (and so on). Eventually he'd have a small group of people who think he's a prognositcating God. But when you really track them, they suddenly develop an unexplained cold streak.

        Einstein came up with his incredible work by performin THOUGHT exercises. No labs, no testing, no scientific data to pour over. Now I'm no Einstein, but I started thinking.

        It boils down to this: buy stocks that are going up. Sell them when they go down. Keep the middle. Simple as E = mc^2, the most radical mathematics of its day.

    • You are getting it...don't even begin to ask WHY...it is unknowable to us neophytes and not really important anyway...more like HOW do I catch the bus instead of being run over by it? I don't have to know why it is going where it is going, as long as it is headed in the right direction!

      FEED was on the list (remember my Freudian slip of calling it WEED?). It went nuts two days ago (gapping up) and yesterday had a predictable adjustment.

    • Did you ride (JRCC) all the way up

      If no why not?

      Nothing like messing up your jokes

      • 2 Replies to dbergh1
      • What jokes? (that's a joke)

        About JRCC. You betcha. It started showing up about the beginning of Feb, and yeah (when I'm not on the sidelines) I've ridden it up pretty steadily. It's ironic that when I've been out of commission recently that it's faultered! I'd rather be lucky than good.

        side note: my broker told me by email last night that everything was straightened out and I could trade this AM. I've been trying to log in for the last 30 minutes and can't. It may be that I bought a brand new notebook computer just for trading and it doesn't recognize it.

        Here's the best part: I've been working on an automated trading system in the meanwhile. Last night at 2 AM I backtested my latest refinement with 100% positive trades for the last two weeks (I did not test further YET). That has me a little pumped to go. A little voice says there is no Holy Grail, but...the trades aren't monster trades always (but sometimes pretty damn good) but the thought of NO negative trades is something I've always dismissed. That's why it is particularly MADDENING!!!

 
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