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  • jockinmikeg jockinmikeg Nov 8, 2013 3:41 AM Flag

    Chart Analysis

    FWIW, 3-month chart activity shows a 3-box reversal trend. First reversal in late August, 2nd following the all-time highs in late Sept, and the chart suggests that we're beginning a 3rd one that started in late October. Each reversal has represented ~ a 30-40% drop from the previous peak. Not sure where the bottom will be this time, but it seems like we have more big-bid support now. A 30% drop from the latest peak of 2.05 seems low (1.44) at this point in the game, but I guess not a foregone conclusion.

    if the pps corrects only 20% from the latest peak, coincidentally the 50MA of 1.65, I'll add. If it fully corrects the 30% like it has the first two boxes in the trend, I'll add big.

    Amidst all the conferences, catalysts, and potential we are all well aware still have to respect the chart. And it has been pretty darn consistent.

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    • bump. in the abscence of news and no change in fundamentals - it's in the technicals.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • Look at the your first box,: a couple of weeks after the high, it retracted 15 % to bounced on 20 days MA and went up to an all time high (+60%). We now retracted 15 % from 2.06, bounced off the 20 average and will soon be on our way to 2.60 - 3.20$. Celldex news in a couple of weeks and 2 other trial results before christmas

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Imo this is fine analysis IF you already own your core position.
      Otherwise.. averaging in with the idea that we have support at both the levels you mentioned.. can give
      someone the confidence to average down.

      Imo technicals can be tricky with small cap biotechs. The right catalyst at the right (or wrong time) can move the stock regardless. No need to chase.. be patient .. but "greed" can cut both ways..


      • 1 Reply to robellingsen
      • Rob, my core shares never left my hands. Technical analysis has been very accurate for determining my adding (and subtracting) points with this play in the absence of "successful Phase 2 trial of Drug XYZ using Stellar's KLH"...or "Stellar $35M research grant from ABC Drug Company" type news. (which IMO is still down the road)

        The meetings and clinical data presented for Stellar are good for DD, but I don't think they really move the price that much. The chart has been pretty dead-on.

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