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PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish ETF Message Board

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  • ihawk38 ihawk38 Jun 6, 2009 2:37 PM Flag

    From Mahendra's 5/27/09 newsletter

    Could this guy be right? I was looking at a long term chart of the dollar and it looks like it's formed a possible cup and handle pattern which it's now in the handle phase.

    Here's the big question which I don't know the answer so please comment. What if the dollar has hit a low and will go on to the highs of the 1990s.

    With the U.S. economy in a sorry state now, where would a strong dollar lead us?

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    • This guy said his theory called for the dollar to bottom on May 27th. It went down another 2% in the next week, not that he wasn't fairly close.

      Look at a chart of TIP and UUP. Tip's support is UUP's resistance and vice versa. TIP failed to break out on its second attempt above its 300 day moving average which has served as steady resistance. It may now go back and test 150 day support which is resistance for UUP on the 2 and 5 year chart at about 24.75. If TIP falls through 150 and UUP goes above 24.75 on convincing volume I might get a little nervous, otherwise I don't think the strong dollar story is anything more than irrational exuberance over green shoots and interest rate hikes, neither of which are likely to materialize anytime soon in my opinion.

 
UUP
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