is the real story in these world markets folks.
Exports going out of the USA will hurt. (that's Washington's sacrificial lamb)
International sales of government paper out of Washington will more than make up for the short term loss from decreased exports.
Stronger USA Dollars are making other USA Government issued paper move even better.
As global commodities dip in price, the flight to safety will be in the paper relating to the strongest domestic service sector in the world: USA Dollars
I'm sure you've witnessed this story before.
Gold bugs will continue to scratch their heads as well as their wallets for whatever paper they can find to cover margin calls and to pay debts.
The most hilarious fact behind the strong dollar is its movement is not initially based on anything other than a technical advantage in the chart patterns and nothing fundamental. Fundamental justification for value movement comes later.
After a good strong rally in the USA Dollar, the planets will line up for exports out of the USA to be desired. As this happens, witness dips in the USA dollar allowing brief buying opportunities for internationals around the globe, for them to get a few more USA Assets as they feel fit...but we are far far from that point.
Gold is still way above $900/oz --> that's where the meat and potatoes of the bell curve of gold sales remains.
1200 | ----> smart mice sold here
900 .|)))) ---> elephants traded here
600 .| ----> smart mice will buy again here
If you are patient and pretty good with your ultra long term buying pattern, maybe YOU can get some gold in the six hundreds, it could happen in less than a decade.
You could say there is some metric (long term bellcurve market profile analysis) that equally correlates to the US dollar and that's where the US Dollar index is headed, but the fact remains there are other global currency shenanigans to witness in the meantime that will offer us more than an entertaining ride up the value chain.
Ladies and Gentleman....
Please don't trade based on me. I offer nothing but opinion, facts as I see them, and my beliefs. I am merely a speculator. Trade based on your own decisions.
I have been right about the longer term direction of many of my positions, and due to my own over-leveraged or risk mis-management have lost plenty of money due to short-to-intermediate term price swings against me. I learn from myself just like most traders and investors positively evolve.
Thank you for your compliments. They feed nothing but my ego that I must poison now for balance. Grrrr.
Like any voice than your own, trust no one.
If I bring good reason to your table, we shall enjoy that goodness with a grain of salt as we dispel hope, fear, and greed.
well gold will head south much lower imo. 600 is about right. USD will pick up steam, i expect a massive sell off in stocks though as we shift to the safe haven dollar, eventually the dollar and stocks will mode together....just not yet...imo..
rock on USD!
<< eventually the dollar and stocks will mode together....just not yet...imo.. >>
Sure, that is what we want.
(It has been a mantra for a while now.)
What we could see is a bottoming in the stock market later this year at the same time the USD pauses before continuing higher. As the bullish parity between the USD and the US stock markets comes to light, it will be interesting to see if that parity created during the short-to-intermediate term becomes a momentous cup with handle formation (or other strong continuation pattern) for the USD as it continues higher instead of a short lived topping formation for the USD.
I am inclined to believe the probable pattern is a momentous continuation, mainly due to the fact that skepticism spread through the media at the time will be so palatable.
In order to believe the dollar will strengthen this decade you have to totally ignore the structural fundamentals of the US economy.
Your premise worked well for the dot com NASDAQ bubble and the Real Estate bubble.
The fundamentals as well as history indicate that the dollar will continue to lose purchasing power.
I take it that you are ignoring the recent tripling of the money supply and the fact that China is strengthening the Yuan. They are going to do this by stopping the process of expanding their money supply to support the US dollar. This will result in them purchasing less of our debt as other countries will soon as well. At that point the only purchaser of US treasuries will be the Fed and its printing press. This will lead to hyper inflation and the total destruction of the currency.
What could save the US dollar? Cut government by 2/3rds, run budget surpluses and start paying down the national debt. And if you think that is going to happen then you must have seen the tooth fairy as well.
many so called experts believe the dollar will appreciate later this year and thats why uup calls are more expensive than puts. To me, the uup is such a low risk trade for the next 12 months.....problem its seems like a low reward trade unless one uses options.
I tend to agree with Angel. The $ will experience a 2-3 year uptrend (in my view) for no other reason than a dollar denominated debt implosion that will destroy many $'s thus the remaining dollars will increase in value. Remember, over the past 40-yrs we've had a credit based inflation...well now we are going to have a debt implosion deflation. I am positioning my assets for deflation.
I don't think you will get $600 gold just due to the problems with the dollar. Gold may get cheap when compared to other commodities like oil, but the dollar has to deal with lack of demand. We are currently in a short term bounce, but some of this has to do with some scary talk about China that was overblown. Yes there was a flight to quality, but what investers have realized is that given our current governments anti-business stance that this traditional safe haven isn't so safe. Gold will bottom shortly ($1050), China will rise again, and the dollar will then go down.
You can hope interest rates will help he dollar in six months, but that will crush any sort of jobs creation that may have happened by then and the real estate market will dip again. This will the reset where we believe full employment is (12%) and the first time home prices didn't rise after a recession. What essetially will happen is that the NEXT recession will occur in 3 years and that will be a full blown depression.
Gold and emerging markets will be the investment of choice. NOT THE DOLLAR.
Long term from now, healthcare and social security will crush the economy because of the unemployed 20 year olds and the inability of the 40 year olds to get equity out of their homes due to falling prices in realestate.
The future is bleak. Enjoy this tiny dollar pop, it will be the one of the last.
<< You can hope interest rates will help he dollar in six months >>
I don't hope, and I don't believe interest rate increases will be needed in six months by the Fed
also, ...TBT appears to have stalled out in mid flight. I think too many speculators (this and last year) put too much faith in it to do more than it did.
TBT Looks like a bear in its own bear trend.