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Oncolytics Biotech, Inc. Message Board

  • kennythecounselor kennythecounselor Mar 25, 2011 2:42 PM Flag

    New melanoma treatment numbers FDA

    If my quick glance at this story is correct, 12.9 fatality risk with Brystal's new injectable drug and the FDA approved...
    How could they possibly block REO several months down the line? (okay, more than several months perhaps?) and it extends life 4 months. Perhaps that somewhat OT news has sparked this huge 5 cent rise.... Relax everyone and quit looking for a story and news either good or bad when it just isn't there yet. Just a thought...
    I really like the approval though ! Very promising on the part of the FDA who have been just aweful over the past several years...(ok, more that several perhaps.....)
    Buy 'em.... Hold 'em my friends. good news is coming down the road a bit I believe.

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    • I don't pretend ... alternatively you D2Foxes don't know what you are talking about.

    • I don't pretend (as you do) to be an expert or a certified market analyst. But IMO Yervoy has a much more limited future than what the analysts are imagining.

      I offer some of the rationale.

      There are currently 6 different PIII trials for metastatic melanoma going on. All of them have shown PII results that suggest they will do at least as well as ipilimumab in PIII. And with toxic side effects no greater or less than what Yervoy saw.

      One of those PII trials is the large BioVex/Amgen PIII which is scheduled to reach the primary endpoint in just 2 1/2 months and has seen nowhere near the SAE's the Yervoy trial saw.

      The other trials are not a bunch of startup biotechs either. Novartis, Hoffman LaRoche, Glaxo Smith Klein,etc,all with deep pockets and political heft.

      Add to them our own reo MM trials which seem to be leading to approvable status in years hence. Conceivably by 2015 - 16.

      I don't see how in hell a highly toxic therapy overcharging terminal patients for an extra 11-12 weeks of misery can stand up on that environment even if it without the enormous looming problems with the cost of cancer care.

      Those who choose to twist the world and every news report to fit their preconceived notions may spin the $120K figure into thinking reo therapy is worth multiples of that.

      OTOH, I doubt for reasons cited the 2015 projections are anything but pipe dreams.


    • "With additional reports that the price will be greater than what analysts were expecting, more than double in some cases, forecast upgrades are likely for the product known also as ipilimumab.

      analysts from UBS increased their 2015 estimates from $760m to $1.45bn. They write: "At mid-day the question was is ipi a $1bn or $2bn drug. We think the discussion now shifts to if ipi is a $2bn or a $3bn drug."

      For a drug that had been written off two years ago, ipi now seems to be key to BMS’ patent cliff strategy."

    • " There's no chance now that you will ever get the death penalty. You've established your mentally incompetent defense beyond a shadow of a doubt."

      Now, now, chill D2!What upset you so much? Is it Obama going to UN instead of asking Congress, to get permission to go to war? Is UN the Guardian of our Constitution already?
      You sound like Sammy Haggard. Driving to the liquor store, but, woke up by the side of the road ,naked and your butt hurting. Aliens? Does your room have kinda soft interior? And you are asking me to bunk with a religious nut. A nut you never listen to, you just parrot a third party opinion, because?? hurts to think? This is quite like the wisdom of a 12 yr old who says that he doesn't need an education, he can Google anything he needs to know, including the Truth about Right and Wrong. Haaaaaaaaa...........

    • Thank you; it would appear that he was not yet aware of the Bristol-Myers news at time of writing. Interesting.


    • Sorry for the late reply - we visited friends last night and got home too late... Walt. WRT Garrity, he does a nice job on initial analysis, but is generally not so good on his updates. I suspect the two weeks of hold were just watching the price drop. Here's what he said this week when changing to strong buy:

      Oncolytics Biotech (ONCY) Oncolytics has completed enrollment for its U.S. Phase II clinical trial using intravenous injection of Reolysin combined with paclitaxel and carboplatin in patients with advanced head and neck cancers. Shares are off about 17% from their recent high but trading appears to have turned around-perhaps reflecting a positive read on expected data. Strong Buy.

    • Hard to figure the pps with all these upgrades, motley-five stocks to own etc. Guess that's why bios can be so volitile, nobody believes until...
      ps: maybe it's helen

    • Walt: That would roughly paralell disappointment in enrollment, followed by the end of enrollment in P2 H&N.

      Did the rec come out before or after the BMS news?


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