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Oncolytics Biotech, Inc. Message Board

  • nebergallw nebergallw Feb 11, 2013 5:40 PM Flag

    Article By Seeking Alpha

    Nice summary by Seeking Alpha a few minutes ago.


    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • One of the better ones. Knowledgable and insightful. Big world out there but something struck me as strange. Had a guy post here recently a similarly insightful synopsis of ONCY who went by the nic gilli vanilli. Said it was a cut and paste previously sent to his daughter. SA writers last name Gilson. Gilson -- gilli vanilli hmmm

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to charlieml1
      • Your bunny has a good nose. Unfortunately, my knowledge of science is limited. Many thanks to these two boards for enlightening me. As for the author, she's pre med & has forgotten more about science than AF likely to ever know. He may be correct about metastasis not being an official indication, tho it wouldn't matter. If it gets approval in any indication, and shows results in mets, what oncologist wouldn 't prescribe it given no other tools in the box. Semantics. I think you could argue head & neck or head & neck mets aren't a single indication either (many varieties), yet FDA treating those groups as single indications. Proud Papa

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • The emphasis of the article was the science, which I personally found second to only Geneman. Nice job differentiating reo from failed & other virus prospects. Precision in earnings estimates & multiple did not seem the goal of the paper. Rather, she sized the enormity of the opportunity and the easy justification for big Pharma to pay-up yet still make a very good purchase on behalf of their own shareholders (they pay $100-$200 for $300+ of value). Of course the stock doesn't go from $4-5 to $200. But rises dramatically (more than 38%) upon good Ph3 data, continues to propel upwards as investors size the opportunity, likely further boosts upon drug approval, funding, mktg partnerships, etc. Finally, rises while in-play and culminates in a bidding war. $20BN opportunities don't sneak thru the cracks and get stolen by big Pharma. Only nutjob here is someone suggesting success means a mere $10 buyout.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Is she dillusional, short this #$%$

    • Good overall summary of ONCY and ONCY's clinical trials.

      SEARCH: Oncolytics Biotech, Inc.: An Intro To These Next Few Crucial Weeks

      "Stock Potential

      For Reolysin being approved for metastatic cancer alone, the potential is enormous. The following assumptions have been made:

      2.5 MM new metastatic disease patients diagnosed in the developed world each year
      50% of those patients go on Reolysin= 1.25 MM patients
      $18,000/year price for treatment
      70% Gross Margin (this is relatively cheap to manufacture)
      25% SG&A expense
      100MM shares by the time the company reaches profitability
      Based on these assumptions, pretax income would be over $10BN and Net Income over $6.5 BN.

      With 100 MM shares, the EPS would be $65/share and assuming a 15 P/E multiple, discounted back 5 years required to build the business up after favorable Phase III results at a 25% higher risk equity return requirement, this could have the potential to be a $320+/share current value stock. However, I expect that upon favorable Phase III results, there will more likely be a $100-$200/share buyout by big Pharma."

      • 4 Replies to carrivechio
      • Need the P3 data for the H&N. Seeking alpha also had an article about Reolysin being a failure. My guess, after posting here several times, is that there are many people who are may be paid supporters or they do not know what they are talking about for oncology treatments - despite the rhetoric. Again, this is a promising approach but still speculative for an invesment.

        Sentiment: Buy

      • Did anyone happen to notice the comments from readers? Notice a familiar name?


      • While a positive phase 3 result surely would mean higher prices, lets say it moves from 4 or 5 at the time to say 10 on the news, it needs to be clear this woman is off her rocker. No company makes a buy out offer of 1000to 2000% on a closing price of say 10. studies clearly show that most offers are an average of 38% above the closing price. I have seen a 100% gain on rare occasions. I hate opinion pumping Alpha. Anyone who listens to the dribble of a lunatic needs to have their head examined. Time will show my rational and this nut jobs insanity. Dream on, but go ONCY.

      • Unfortunately for biotechs you cannot do P/E based valuations.

        Instead, you need to do a full blow discounted cash flow model with a deescalating rate as the terminal value.

        That would paint a more accurate picture in terms of valuation.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I saw it, but I always worry when these SA bloggers post as if they have some "News Value", when it is nothing more than an opinion, and they lose credibility when they pump stocks stating off the wall price expectations. I have seen this a hundred times and their wild expectations never materialize. Again, they are just bloggers and pumpers or bash posters.
      My caution is take their pumps or bash 's for what they are worth, just opinions.

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