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Novation Companies, Inc. Message Board

  • kansasnoall kansasnoall Dec 2, 2004 11:44 AM Flag

    I bought some more

    Well, I have watched the tape enough. I backed up the truck and bought a bunch more this morning.

    My reasons for buying:
    1. Slowly increasing dividend.
    2. 70% of float is short.
    3. 12% trailing dividend
    4. Minimum dividend increase of 10 to 15% annually for many future years.
    5. All of next years dividends are already earned if dividends stay constant.
    6. NFI has only 3% of the total market.
    7. Honest management that is extremely bright and knows how to execute.
    8. April/May law suits will come to an end very soon.
    9. NFI's accounting is the way the big firms do their accounting.
    10. NFI remains under valued relative to its peers.

    And the down side??????
    1. The shorts will not tell us why they have 70% of the float shorted. If this is the other side of the hedge, then I would love to see how fast that side of the hedge is going up.
    2. Over on the Value Forum board, we had a huge debate, and the longs won the debate hands down. We talked about all the down side, and I watched and listened and watched and listed, and I can not see a big down side.

    Oh, enough!!!! I need to get back to my rocking chair. I think I will just

    Keep watching my cows and NFI dividends,

    Kansas
    3.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Boy you sure have a lot of trucks.

    • I bought more also. Same reasons.
      pjs

    • Where is the Value Forum Board? Thanks.

    • 'The shorts will not tell us why they have 70% of the float shorted'

      I'm new here, but from what I gather, the shorts believe that there is some very fishy accounting going on (and according to the NFI presentation, NFI does count their beans differently than most other mReits).

      I believe they because they expect one of the two following events will come to pass: 1) one or more of the lawsuits will settle in their favor, or 2) there is an announced SEC investigation of NFI. (They would be ecstatic and very wealthy if both would happen.)

      I, and I'm sure the rest of the longs, (primarily because of the capable extensive analysis done by our gurus here) believe even more strongly that the risk of either of these events occuring is remote. Also, time is working in our favor. They have to get lucky this month - probably before the Dec 22 announcement - or they will be in a very serious and precarious situation.

      Mr. O.

      • 1 Reply to mister_optimistic
      • 1. <<NFI does count their beans differently than most other mReits>>

        except for Countrywide, GMAC/RFC, Citi, JP Morgan Chase, Wamu, Wachovia, and every other major issuer of MBS.

        2. <<one or more of the lawsuits will settle in their favor, or 2) there is an announced SEC investigation of NFI. >>

        These are already priced into the stock.

        3. <<the risk of either of these events occuring is remote. Also, time is working in our favor. They have to get lucky this month - probably before the Dec 22 announcement >>

        I agree - The shorts are in deep trouble. And, I do not care what they do. NFI at these prices is a strong buy. The dividend will cover the situations described by Market Dis -en - Genious.

        Kansas

 
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