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Novation Companies, Inc. Message Board

  • hartfordx hartfordx Feb 22, 2007 6:19 PM Flag

    Be realistic

    NFI is heavily oversold. The management will do whatever is good for shareholders. Major reorganization is possible. NFI is worth at least $14. I think NFI will be traded at this level in a couple of months. NFI is a great investment for longs.

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    • The mangement will try to protect their asses. Therefore they will try to satisfy their debt holders/warehouselenders, because debt holders/warehouse lenders are big boys with a lot of money to pay good laywers to harm the management, if not satisfied.

      NEW signed warehouse prolongation a few days before they bombed the market, with the statement, that their Q10 are false. The management will get legal repercussions for this signing of the statement, if they dont satisfy their lenders.

      Therefore i believe they will try to satisfy this special lender and other lenders with favourable conditions and money. After they satiesfied/protected their warehouse lenders they messed with, they maybe default. I would bet there is big legal wrangling in the moment from the warehouse lenders to change their aggreements to be very good protected in an default event. This means get the interest=(collect as trustee for the lenders) from the loans held als collateral, even if NEW or other default.

      When they are protected, they can pull the plug(more margin calls, because of ABX cratering and loans held for collateral for the warehouse lines therefore loosing value!).

      Who has the best aggrements first and gets satiesfied on margin calls first, looses the least money. Most lenders cant plug the plug ouright, because the agreements doesnt all be in the best favour of the lenders and they knew that the subies cant repurchase instantly the loans, because other lenders will not accept the loans as collateral at a good price, because ABX cratered. The loans are made 1-3 month ago and are loosing value, because of ABX.

    • The mangement will try to protect their asses. Therefore they will try to satisfy their debt holders/warehouselenders, because debt holders/warehouse lenders are big boys with a lot of money to pay good laywers to harm the management, if not satisfied.

      NEW signed warehouse prolongation a few days before they bombed the market, with the statement, that their Q10 are false. The management will get legal repercussions for this signing of the statement, if they dont satisfy their lenders.

      Therefore i believe they will try to satisfy this special lender and other lenders with favourable conditions and money. After they satiesfied/protected their warehouse lenders they messed with, they maybe default. I would bet there is big legal wrangling in the moment from the warehouse lenders to change their aggreements to be very good protected in an default event. This means get the interest=(collect as trustee for the lenders) from the loans held als collateral, even if NEW or other default.

      When they are protected, they can pull the plug(more margin calls, because of ABX cratering and loans held for collateral for the warehouse lines therefore loosing value!).

      Who has the best aggrements first and gets satiesfied on margin calls first, looses the least money. Most lenders cant plug the plug ouright, because the agreements doesnt all be in the best favour of the lenders and they knew that the subies cant repurchase instantly the loans, because other lenders will not accept the loans as collateral at a good price, because ABX cratered. The loans are made 1-3 month ago and are loosing value, because of ABX.

    • Keep dreaming. This stock will not see $14. Most likely $4 in the next few weeks. Downgrades and more bad news coming. The management can't do anything to help this stock. They should of thought about this scenario when the real estate market was good. Now it is too late for NFI. May be the next real estate cycle.

    • I bought NFI when it was in its 30's. As it became clear the inverted curve was here for awhile, it also became obvious that it was just a matter of time unless the curve situation reversed that this crash was going to happen. I sold in the mid 20's and took a loss like a big boy should...with minimum of whining.

      Now that NFI is not going to be paying dividends almost surely for a minimum of 4 to 5 years if at all, this stock is in the land of wild hope. I am glad I sucked it up an took my loss a lot earlier in this game--time for anyone with any sense to take what they can get and reinvest it because this one is through paying a dividend and recovery is unlikely. All imho.

 
NOVC.PK
0.312-0.001(-0.32%)Oct 30 2:13 PMEDT

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