Hey I really appreciate the insight of some of you guys share here. I have learned a lot about bio here.
I am no TA expert but this is one SWEET looking chart. Just playing around with stockcharts and Viola. A thing of beauty.
Hope this link works!
Bought TZA@6.90 & SDS @32.33 for a hedge against long positions. Holding EXEL (and will not sell!) & ARNA(not selling) only 2 biotechs now, sold everything else at a small profit. When 1145 didn't hold it was time to hedge. IMO
Okay...we are getting closer to those downside targets on S&P that some of us have talkjed about (I was targeting 1115-1120 on the SPX). Its not a perfect Science.... EXEL has held in well and the market and EXEL likely will look to bounce soon (could be before end of day or tomorrow am). When it bounces the upsike will be viscious I think (in the market and I'm thinking on EXEL as well).
We're getting close to capitulation on this phase of the marekt sell off. The pull back in EXEL holding up well considering. Th vix is at 30, if we can see this relax then re-entry or add on stocks like EXEL could be good, but still thinking that could be short term since I'm looking for the S&P to get closer to the lower 1100 levels and its nto quite there yet. However, in technical analysis you normally nail exactly the high or low point (same with EXEL). Mike
I read your input quickly because I was getting ready to get out another thought or two.
At any rate, liked the input from what I skimmed off and will revisit
I'm looking for 1115-1120 for the bounce on SPX. That said...and although EXEL appears to me to be bear flagging for another leg down, I really like the action in it. For what most others would consider a speculative, small cap play, it really tries to hold these lower support levels hard. That to me indicates that although there are weak hands in EXEL, there are true believers in the stock and it seems to me to not be limited to the normal retail investors...that institutions are buying at some points on these dips.
If the S&P breaks 1145 it's going a lot lower. 1145 is January's strong support levels.
I agree, by my calucations I see 4.83 as a turning point for EXEL. A few trades in between, but short trades. Holding a sizable core now, but adding trader shares soon.
Unemployment #'s tomorrow are predicted to be fairly good. But next months #'s will be horrible, IMO. If by some chance #'s are not as good as expected tomorrow, look out below!!
The Gulf coast fisherman are already filing for unemployment this week. The rest of the retailers in the region will have a very dismal season this year due to the oil spill. Not much, if any, hiring will happen there.
Europe keeps sinking & only going to get worse. Some Spainish officials are proclaiming Spain would never default on its debt. The rule of thumb is that if you have to proclaim you will never have default on debt, there is a good chance you will. This will take the rest of the markets down with it. JMO
Oops...I meant the "...March & July 2008 lows..." above.
That is, normally on an extreme market sell off you look to pick up your favorite stocks near the high of the day of that previous extreme sell off point -- that would be in the $4.75-4.80 area for EXEL.
But there is certainly no assurance that EXEL will get that low (its just technically what you look for to minimize risk to the downside on a new buy or adding to an existing position).
Good luck, I know there are few long term and recent holders likely frustrated at how EXEL is getting banged around in the overall marekt sell off/pull back. At any rate, legging in here is again likely the better idea rather than going "all in." The market here is dangerous and as good as the fundamentals look, well.. sellers don't care. They sell everything until the market looks like it can sustain a previous support level.
I saw a really nice buy at $5.25 that popped EXEL nicely. The concern I have is that it looks like it won't be sustained so I would be hesistant to add right here. Given the market, it looks to me that many stocks are headed for the March & July lows (but that could take time to pan out).
If correct, there would be a good add point at $4.60-80 area (an inverse H&S type pattern may form from point). However, we could see it hold here and as long as $5.35 retaken in next 1-2 days, then selling may be done. Currently that looks suspect, but hopefully that gives folks some add/re-entry points to think and argue about.
The only other caveat I have is that I saw some intraday up ticks in the Gold stocks and miners -- which often precedes a short term mkt bottom, so we could be close to seeing a few sectors and indices pop. So either waiting or selectively adding is likely the way to go (rather than piling all-in on today's pull back). Mike
Holding $5.50 but weak and market today not helping. As well I see no big flows into biotechs. THinking we should see a retest in the $5.30-5.35 area (which gets it back to late Oct 2009 levels, where previously there was good support.
There are lower levels where it would be an outstanding buy (near $4.30 - $4.50). But unless market and biotechs sell off hard its hard to see it getting that low. At any rate, need to see a good sign of a reversal to generate added buying interest/support.
Right now EXEL modestly holding support, but nothing yet to get it going to take out that 5.90 to $6 area. So its drifting a bit but I'm still seeing some good buys intraday so encouraging for mid to longer term outlook.