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Exelixis, Inc. Message Board

  • abu.bakr94 abu.bakr94 Nov 17, 2010 11:45 AM Flag

    Obviously some here does not know EXEL'S potential.

    I am not a preacher , not an EXEL lover and sure as hell not a basher. For Oncodocwhiz, as for short time we are considering 12-18 months for approvals and fastracking XL184. According to current results and per ABC news this Trial will be fastracked. Other consideration for PPS rising to $30.00 would be if EXEL can use this application on many other Cancers. I do however believes that EXEL may not see their full potential of going to $50.00 and above. This Company would be bought above $30.00 with Competitors bidding for its pipeline. Pfizer is in need of a promising Oncology pipeline and would say that they might a big player more than BMY, GSK and Roche.

    As per arguement if EXEL can exceed $50.00, you just have to look at two stocks, HGSI and DNDN and you will find this answer.

    12-18 months is a very short time in the Biotech World.

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    • funny, I forgot to send this last night

      guess I was right


    • Lets be realistic and not smoking something .this stock won't get to 50 unless there is a blockbuster drug and if they come up with one they will be taken out far below that IMHO.I am long with a big chunk.( i would be as happy as a pig in you know what if it hit 10

    • morning_7130 Nov 17, 2010 4:12 PM Flag

      I honestly have no idea. I have met 70 year olds who could spin any tale above my lecturer-grade english/french/portuguese/spanish, and others that couldn't put two lines together. Doctors are a weird bunch though ;)

    • Yes, with many successful indications. I was responding to the question about other drugs with many indications.

    • morning_7130 Nov 17, 2010 2:34 PM Flag


      I was thinking of placing this drug totally ahead, in terms of time-to-market, of other early stage stuff - and it's a pill... I don't know how janus kinase, mabs, or other inventive science would compare to this - I don't know enough of bio to delve into it as far as I would like to since my field is physics and math, but it seems that while there is room for many interesting areas to bloom after 2012, 2013, well, here's something that works, in a lot of indications, in 2011. Ready to work , I would say.

    • Abu,
      thanks for your clarifying reply. If short term is 12-18 months, $30/share is possible though I have my doubts.
      To make any predictions about future price, we need to make some assumptions about likely events (and these become points of risk in the event they don't happen).

      1) Thyroid trial/NDA
      So, we've been told that we'll have the first look at thyroid data in the first half of 2011. I'm assuming it's positive, though given the nature of enrollment, it may take another look. With it being positive, I'm assuming an NDA filing by the end of the year. Note that the time for FDA review may be a while. There is no impetus for rapid review for thyroid cancer since vandetinib has a positive trial in the same indication filed this year so there's not an urgent need to rush a second drug through (independent of what XL stockholders want).
      the estimates I've seen put sales for that indication at less than $30 million per year. I would be very wary of making huge assumptions about off label use since not only had FDA cracked down on that, insurance companies are being much stricter about reimbursing.

      2) GBM
      Awaiting reports of phase 3 trial initiation. It will need to be ex-US to get patients pre-Avastin. Presumably it will take 6-12 months to enroll (say end of 2011) and require some follow up. If positive, it could set up for a filing as early as end of 2012. Based on the data, that could be reviewed faster (6 months). The issue there is how the safety and survival data look compared to Avastin since Avastin is already standard. There are other trials in earlier lines, but those will take longer.
      3) Prostate-
      we should get a glimpse at the first data set tomorrow. I cna only hope it lives up to the company buzz (I'm concerned at this point that expecations have been set quite high). At best there will be some response data and it will be interesting to see how it compares to drugs about to get approved (abiraterone and MDV3100). If it looks good, that would be the basis for launching a phase 3 three trial, but I suspect the company will want to take some time to get a sense of how best to design the phase 3 trial. Note that MDVN recently announced a second phase 3 in earlier stage prostate cancer that is 1100 or so patients. These trials will take a while and while I agree that this indication can be potentially large, it will take lots of time and money to get there.

      To be continued

      The “Wiz”

      • 2 Replies to oncodocbiotechwiz
      • You didn't mention liver and lung cancer. In the EORTC abstracts of the crossover trial results were mentioned for both of these cancers which will be updated by tommorrow.
        The liver cancer was a real eye opener. They had positive results in patients who had relapsed on Sorfenib. There were also some indications of positive results in lung cancer.

      • (continued)
        So regarding valuation, I appreciate your bringing up DNDN and HGSI, two companies with recent approvals and market caps now above $4B. Note that both of these companies have completed the trials (de-risking done) and either have marketing approval (DNDN) or should shortly (HGSI). Also, both companies had very high risk unexpected results to the upside. DNDN is set up to charge an amazing amount (unclear if it will fly) but has a positive survival trial, while HGSI has half of a drug in a space essentially without competition (estimated at >$2B/year sales). While it's possible that XL184 could get to $2B/year in sales if everything works just right, it will take a while. Approval in thyroid alone will not generate that increase in PPS. From my perspective, I'd use MDVN as a comparitor. They have a product that is more advanced in prostate cancer than XL184 and have half of it and have a market cap of about $400M. Cougar had full rights to abiraterone and JNJ bought them for $1B or so. Based on that, if the prostate data are very good, it might put XL in the range of $1B (don't forget there is debt as well) or about $8-10/share in the short term (meaning months). With a continued flow of very positive clinical data, there would be a gradual rise, but I wouldn't expect a 6-fold pop overnight.
        Just my speculation so feel free to disagree. As far as partners, I suspect neither GSK nor BMS would buy back into the program since that would make them look rather silly. Pfizer, I could see as they appear to be rather desparate.
        Tomorrow should be interesting.

        The "Wiz"

    • EXEL is looking a lot like MEDX when they were taken out by BMY. I'm guessing (if the drug news stays positive) we'll move up a couple or few bucks from here and get bought for around $12 - $14 within 6 months. It will happen when you least expect it, so watch trading in and out.

      Some of you might want to think about LXRX also.

      • 1 Reply to snodgruss
      • Snodgruss,
        I'm not sure I'd agree. MEDX had several marketed products and also (unbeknownst to me) had positive phase 3 data on ipilumumab. At this point, the value for XL would be XL184. In addition, there is some long term debt which decreases the buyout price. Could someone buy the company for $12-14/share? Sure. If the data look promising, I could see that. The question is going to be about timing and price. It appears to me that XL can't fund all the trials it needs to do to add value to the XL184 program, nor can it wait to do the trials. Raising money at the current share price would be unsatisfying. Finding the balance between what a partner is willing to pay today vs. what XL would want could be interesting.

        The "Wiz"

    • "Obviously some here does not know EXEL'S potential."
      Using proper English you should say do not or don't, rather than "does not".

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