Just wondering what you all think...
Which do you think is more valuable to EXEL?
Having the BMS Partnership with XL-184 before the data was realeased.
Losing BMS as a partner, but having strong data released for XL-184.
Just wondering if anyone thinks that $8 52 week high is attainable without further news. Plus i'm tired of reading about partner/buyout speculations since no one has any clue what will happen.
"The company has seen positive results on drugs to treat prostate and ovarian cancers, and we've been spotting a few large put sales that reflect a broad sense of confidence in the stock price."
<<"The company has seen positive results on drugs to treat prostate and ovarian cancers, and we've been spotting a few large put sales that reflect a broad sense of confidence in the stock price.">>
Doesn't that also mean that they've seen a few large put purchases that could be interpreted negatively?
I firmly believe that we have not seen the eventual top yet, but the recent activity almost guarantees that we will overshoot an intermediate plateau and churn for a while to shake out some of the weaker new investors (like the alaskan guy---don't apologize for taking a profit). What level that will happen at---I frankly don't know, I would say that I don't really care, but the eventual buyout starts negotiating from the current price, so the higher the current price is when the negotiations start, the better it is for those of us who---for the time being---plan to stay until the end.
I simplisticly view future drivers as two categories of "news" that will dictate where we go from here.
Clinical news---updated results, agreeing to an SPA, acheiving full enrollment, topline results from the MTC trial, ASCO abstracts, etc.
Nonclinical news, upgrades/downgrades, new form 4's, major investors buying/selling, partnership news, buyout rumors, press coverage, etc.
Just a wildass guess, but my seat of the pants feel is that we will stabilize around a $1 billion market cap ($9 pps) and fluctuate around that level until substantive news moves us higher/lower.
Of course this is better. They lost a BMS partner when it seemed like they had nothing. Obviously they can negotiate better terms now that they have an ace up their sleeve (or something like that).
EXEL is like gold right now. It's hard to say exactly why it's worth what it's trading at, but there is no reason to sell whatsoever. So, like gold it will continue to drift up and up. I don't see a valuation problem until at least $9 - 10, but a frenzy could carry this stock much much higher. I would not be surprised at all to see $15 without any kind of additional news coming out in the next month.
P.S. My track record with biotechs is downright amazing. I'm hoping this will mark yet another homerun in my biotech investing stats.
The trouble is that nobody can talk about anything potentially real due to the risk of derailing the process and no deal is done until the contract is signed, after which, both parties need to announce it as soon as possible since it is invariably material. It's true that some companies come out and say they are for sale, though that may not be a guarantee either. I think the speculation here is driven by the fact that XL has so exclusively focused on XL184 and that the market (fair or not) does not give much enterprise value to any other XL assets.
<<I guess all topics are going to end in buyout/partnership discussions since they are so important. It would be good to have some hard data though.>>
Come on guys, this is a Yahoo message board. If ever there was an appropriate place for guesses, conjecture, innuendo and speculation, this is it. A takeover is an inevitability (my opinion). Even Genentech has been taken over and spun back out. Successful biotechs are bought. It's a fact of life. Shutting down proprietary R&D was tacit acknowledgement by EXEL that takeover is the end game. Now comes the mating ritual and eventual selection by the BoD to see who the winner will be. Let's just hope the process is competitive.
The latter is clearly more valuable - because it returns the value of XL-184 back to Exelixis after BMY has already financed a good chunk of deveopment. They are likely no further back then they would have been had BMS not dropped the partnership, but they gain all of the value from the seemingly positive news from development.
In terms of the $8 stock price, assuming nothing adverse occurs, I can see the stock drifting back to that level for certain.
The take-out option is likely on the table. The recent XL184 results were likely a game-changer for any previous negotiations. If a deal is in the works, I'm guessing an early spring deal at US$15-17. If you look at the MEDX time frame - it was much longer, but BMY came in at a real low ball initial offer after underwhelming FDA feedback. I think Exelixis is in a stronger negotiating position and suspect there may be some interest in icing a deal more quickly, to offset any premium that would have to be paid with strong results at next year's ASCO meetings.
Best of luck everyone - it has been an exciting few weeks.