I told ya that EXEL was VERY long in the tooth as far as PPS was concerned. Amgen thinks so too. Back to reality for EXEL. This board is full of buyout hype talk. Classic :)
So it postpones the bone metastasis by 4.2 months..that's a world beater?...what if a compound actually reversed or eliminated bone metastasis...would that be worth something north of the 2 billion they predict 4.2 months is worth?
Yeah, I found the prevention data interesting myself in comparison to resolving existing metastasis. Pretty big stock move after hours for such a big company too. Kind of a nice position to be in if your exelixis isn't it.--assuming this efficacy signal is durable. Heck even if the current efficacy signal isn't durable with exelixis, it still appears more favorable anyway.
You wouldn't happen to have a link for estimated $2 billion in sales would you? I seen that somewhere to but can't find it now.
<<I told ya that EXEL was VERY long in the tooth as far as PPS was concerned. Amgen thinks so too. Back to reality for EXEL. This board is full of buyout hype talk. Classic :)>>
By the time XL 184 begins a pivotal trial in a similar indication, I frankly doubt that EXEL will still exist as an independent company. It's still early, but XL 184 already appears to be positively differentiated from the bone treatments in a few ways. Dmab and Zometa have no effect on soft tissue disease. They block osteoclastic activity, 184 appears to block osteoclastic and osteoblastic activity and further resulted in blood count improvement in a number of patients, indicative of restoration of bone marrow functionality.
EXEL will initiate its first pivotal trials in HRPC in patients with existing bone disease. Whoever buys the company will move into earlier indications that will overlap with D'mab trial results.
Nice assessment Ernie, as I consider this more of a net positive for Exelixis more than anything. Probably a long way off before we see a head to head between these 2 for premetastatic bone disease if ever, but would be very interesting.
well said. the other problem is Dmab targets the ligand instead of the receptor. While very precise, this approach is usually less effective because the body/cancer adapts and just produces more ligand. Thus, only a 4 month differential. Longer term trials may not show any difference. Plus it is hugely more expensive to go with an antibody than an orally available compound.
Once the analysts look at this more closely EXEL pps should rise considerably. That's assuming analysts are smart enough to consult scientists.
This board may be full of hype, but the volume and price of the stock seems to indicate a different point of view than yours. Did I also mention how much the doctors are impressed?
This is another data point. XL184 and denosumab have different mechanisms of action and depending upon safety profiles, could be complementary. Ernie has noted that XL184 appears to act on soft tissue disease as well as bony mets though the data are still early. I thought there were already data showing d-mab is better than Zometa, so in the short term this creates a problem for NVS. What the press release shows is that it takes very large trials with skeletal end points to get approval for bony mets and that XL184 will need to consider very carefully how the development plan goes in prostate. Nobody said this is easy and that's why XL needs a sugar daddy. I agree with Ernie's post that by the time there is a trial started in CRPC that XL will be in a different form (sold or XL184 partnered). I suppose one could compare XL184 to d-mab though there will need to be some pilot trials to benchmark the effect (percent response, duration of response, etc.). We can see how the market deals with this, but I suspect the result was already priced in. From my perspective (without any claim to any special information), I think the drivers of PPS are perceived value of XL184 and the effect of that on a buyout price. I'll also add that this is my speculation and would discourage anyone from acting on it. Do your own diligence and make your investment decision accordingly.