Take it or leave it, Prostate Cancer will get fastracked for unmet medical need. Every big pharma's eyes are on this, per last CC. This Company will be gone before it gets to 3 billion in market cap. Orphan status on thyroid would bring in revenues to offset expenses. Other compound and partnerships would seal over 3 billion. Don't forget EXEL has already a Billion deal on its hands already.
>>If someone buys Exel I hope the price paid is alot higher than $10 ps.
I would not worry about that. I doubt that it could be bought for less than 15 if they tried today. IF the Feb data confirms the November data and the early data is durable (adding another 3-4 months of duration) then the stock is worth over 20 in a buyout.
Caveat - I am not a science or medical talent. :-) But I am not a novice investor either.
Buy the dips.
Thank you Joeflow for your wonderful explaination of the DNDN drug.I now know more about it.It sounds like an exhausting horrible treatment to go through.A pill of Cabo would certainly be easier.Thank you JHSudds for answering my point on a takeover.That was what I wondered about.I think my question was too convoluted to be clear and to the point.I hope Exel will be traded for yrs. to come.'cause I think I can make more money than from a takeover.If someone buys Exel I hope the price paid is alot higher than $10 ps.
Exel has the superior drug it appears over Provenge...the point was that DNDN is bringing it to market on its own. For shareholders of Exel our hope is that Cabo continues to show a superior profile, partners and Exel remains independent. A buyout would short circuit the true potential for Exel. I think that is the present mind-set at Exel. Whether or not they can pull it off remains to be seen
Clem, DNDN does not have a "drug". Provenge is a method wherein a patients peripheral blood lymphocytes are removed and stimulated with a specific antigen commonly expressed on prostate cancer cells. Protocol includes the addition of growth factors (cytokines such as IL-2) to stimulate the growth of cytotoxic T cells that should specifically attack prostate cancer cells. These cells are then re-infused back into the patient. Results are modest at best and barely reach statistical significance. The concept is based on work done by Steve Rosenberg in the late 1980-1990s when Rosenberg was injecting metastatic melanoma patients with IL-2 in an attempt to stimulate a T cell response directed at cancer cells. Rosenberg's attempts were a failure and many terminal patients suffered needlessly while Rosenberg tried to make a name for himself. I was at Columbia University at the time and when Rosenberg came to give a talk on his "research" the Chairman of Hematology and Oncology at Columbia declared him to be a madman that should not be allowed to experiment on human beings.
There is no comparison between DNDN and EXEL with XL184. XL184 is a drug, administered as a pill, and has shown dramatic efficacy in PhaseII trials. Insurance companies will refuse to pay for DNDN's experimental protocol just as they did with bone marrow transplants because the efficay and duration of response is not worth the high price tag. DNDN will be out of business in a few years.
my not so humble opinion, Joe
I was thinking DNDN was much cheaper just like Exel.Then the DNDN drug looked promising,there was no buyout and the price climbed.So yes now it is too high priced for a buyout? Then if Exel has Cabo sales for something that's revenue to keep them going.If it is a blockbuster they will have plenty of money.Then they could partner what has been abandoned and pick up from where they were at.They also have Deerfield and seem to have ability to find plenty of Venture capital in the Bay Area to tap?Just thoughts of my wandering mind.
<<Isn't DNDN with their prostrate drug still a company that hasn't been acquired? >>
Yes, but DNDN comes with its own set of issues. First, Provenge is a patient specific drug requiring extensive infrastructure to manufacture. It could also be vulnerable to future regulatory issues if anything goes awry with the manufacturing process. Provenge is also what I would characterize as marginally effective. I would say that abiraterone and potentially Cabo represent more significant steps forward in treatment than Provenge. Another barrier is the buy in price. DNDN is a $5-6 bil company. If a potential aquirer moves quickly, EXEL is much less expensive. DNDN kept their R&D program intact. They are a viable stand alone entity for the long term assuming they can continue developing drugs.
<<..They seemed to get more favorable deals that most other BioTech's could?>>
They could get a good deal on Cabo and maybe get some cash for for some of the shelved projects, but after that, there is nothing left. If this were to be a stand alone company, they would need to start from scratch setting up a research department.
<<I'll also note that despite an SPA, ipilumumab required a randomized survival trial to likely get FDA approval. The single arm trial by itself would not do it.>>
The Ipi SPA specified that the lower limit of the 95% conf interval needed to exceed 10%. Essentially, Ipi needed to show a 15% RR and the trial showed a 9% RR. It wasn't a question of FDA reneging on the SPA, it was the drug not meeting the endpoint.
<<This data will need to be in the proposed population (I would think at least post-docetaxel)...>>
The signal (at EORTC) was so strong in pain symptomatic patients, that I think they would want to go with this as a first indication. It also counters the issue of questionable "benefit to the patient" of an improvement in bone scan if you have a fallback argument that you can also show a statsig improvement in pain. Then run an 800 patient Abiraterone +/- Cabo frontline trial with a survival endpoint.