I first read your post and thought "first to alter what?" I get it though, you mean first to the "altar," ie first merger/buyout in a while.
It may be. The big risk with DNDN is that even with the enormous cost of Provenge treatment, a buyer might not ever recover the cost of the merger. Competition is on the horizon. Ipi, better hormone ablation drugs, even Cabo could all steal away market share. The big potential bonanza is if they (DNDN) can turn their technology into a platform that proves successful in other indications and can move into frontline or adjuvant CRPC.
<<but it also points out how undervalued EXEL may be...>>
I agree with both your premise and your careful choice of words. We still have the formality of having to get an SPA and successfully complete a pivotal trial.
<<...before the FDA approval(for MTC), which would move EXEL to the $3B range,>>
A successful MTC result will be an important step, but its actual value may be more symbolic than intrinsic. It would certainly be great press and would also lower the hurdle for the subsequent, more important filings, but its dollar value is modest. I think your estimate of its impact on pps might be optimistic, but I would love to be wrong and see it happen.
I was thinking Mid-Caps too, only HGSI as potentially the first to go. Expectation is profitability in 2013. Patent gaps are expected @ 2014. They still have a ways to go to further develop the potential of Benlystra, But validated platform and expected profitability with a FDA approved product could combine for an interesting takeover target. Small enough to digest if you are big Pharma.