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Exelixis, Inc. Message Board

  • wilderguide wilderguide Dec 22, 2011 1:31 PM Flag

    Ground Control to Major Tom...


    EXEL looks as though it's ready to launch into a lucrative 2012. With the known & predictable catalysts, I expect to see some great stock growth this year. The unknown catalysts make EXEL not only a great trade, but a potentially great investment as well. But, I guess time will tell...

    Here's hoping MMM has his 'G' suit strapped on tight next time we go vertical...
    Thumbs up!!!

    Good luck, everyone.
    Have good holidays...!!!

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    • J.S. Garland is probably getting paid between 200k-300k salary with options. That's my guess.

    • <<Points taken, but I'm not the only one that sees GS as a sideways-talking player.>>

      GS is not a bunch of choirboys and sunday school teachers, I understand. They're out to make a buck, I get that too. But you guys are looking for convoluted conspiracies when there are far more straight forward and likely explanations for the events that have transpired. If GS screws EXEL, EXEL can take its business to MS or CITI or Cowan or a half dozen other underwriters and investment bankers.

    • ....

      Points taken, but I'm not the only one that sees GS as a sideways-talking player. I posted this link a few days before the offering, not accepting it's value at the time. It's convinced me that EXEL will never sell to anyone unless GS is well positioned to make a boodle in the transaction.
      It's simply what they do...;_ylt=Ao18wcDHM4Sr.oia0GVv7yWiuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTQ0NnYwbjJ0BG1pdANGaW5hbmNlIEZQIFRvcCBTdG9yeSBSaWdodARwa2cDZmQ4NmI2YWYtMmIwYi0zZmVjLWEzNjQtYTNiZGZjYTI3NzRmBHBvcwM1BHNlYwN0b3Bfc3RvcnkEdmVyA2M3MmM0M2QwLTUyNGEtMTFlMS1iZmViLTYxNDFlZGM2ODIwZQ--;_ylg=X3oDMTFvdnRqYzJoBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25zBHRlc3QD;_ylv=3

    • <<I see it as a contrived way for GS to disarm the resentments of the folks they sold $11 shares to...Call it their way of giving a little back to their clients. A good scam is one that can be used over and over again.>>

      The 2011 secondary was priced at a discount to the existing stock price. The offering was priced at $11 on 3/9/2011 and was announced as closed on 3/15/2011. As can be seen from the historic information below, all of the successful bidders had the opportunity to flip their shares for a quick profit before or after the closing. My guess is that the volume spike on March 10th was due to successful bidders shorting in advance of the receipt of their allotment. I suspect yesterday's volume was a similar consequence. The successful bidders are notified and have the opportunity to lock in a quick gain before they even receive their stock.

      For those purchasers who held their shares, caveat emptor. My broker does not arrange for special discounts to average down when my investments go sour, GS and EXEL do not extend that courtesy either. The courtesy was getting to participate in the offering in the first place.

      Your scenario assumes that the original buyers in March 2011 still own their shares and that those same buyers are the ones participating in the current offering. Even if that were true, if those institutions were looking for an opportunity to "double down," why would they need to wait for a twofer secondary? EXEL has trade below $5.50 in the open market for 3 months now.

      Wake up, don't fall into this Goldman controls everything conspiracy theory trap. Dr. Morrissey could care less about me and the other shareholders including the purchasers of the secondaries. He wants to successfully maximize the value of the company and bringing a drug to market successfully is currently his vehicle to accomplish that task. Don't kid yourself, the only thing stopping a buyout is that the right number hasn't been whispered in his ear yet. Frankly, I think the drug should be in the hands of a large wealthy company that can afford to do the trials that the current data set justifies. Avastin is one of the most successful oncology drugs of all time, yet it fails a substantial number of its pivotal trials. That's the approach that should be taken with Cabo.

    • ....

      New funding in place. Short interest most likely on the decline. Current data looking good. At least 2 P3 CABO trials currently enrolling in PC alone. Nine abstracts to look forward to at ASCO 2012. CRADA/CTEP monies yet to tap. CABO may finally be finding it's groove...

      Take your protein pill...
      Put your helmet on...


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