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Exelixis, Inc. Message Board

  • field4571 field4571 Nov 30, 2012 12:42 PM Flag

    the conference call hurt

    they said it will only help 500 - 700 people annually much lower than expected !! I'm still long but why did they do that ??

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • What, you want them to be dishonest? Nobody gets 100% penetration, and even 70% penetration, sns a complete cure, takes many months to achieve. Everybody realized, or should have, this was a tiny market, just a foot in the door for now - the shorts have no intention of a panic cover. Exel is a marathon - if it had a milder SE profile it would be a much easier race as well.

    • "..they said it will only help 500 - 700 people annually much lower than expected !! I'm still long but why did they do that ??"

      Maybe it was the truth???? If you were looking for advance notice, just last Tuesday at an investor seminar the company's CSO revealed that the combined patient pool for the US and EMA was a total of 1000 patients.

      • 1 Reply to erniewerner
      • $$$$

        I just now stole this excerpt from the OncLive Cabo approval posting. EXEL's guidance was likely on the mark, possibly a bit conservative. I believe EXEL guidance was 1 - 2%...

        "Medullary thyroid cancer develops in cells in the thyroid responsible for the production of calcitonin, a hormone that regulates the level of calcium in" the blood. A relatively rare cancer, medullary thyroid cancer accounts for about 4% of the 56,460 thyroid cancer cases expected to be diagnosed in the United States in 2012 and the 1780 patients expected to die from the disease, according to the National Cancer Institute."

        "...just last Tuesday at an investor seminar the company's CSO revealed that the combined patient pool for the US and EMA was a total of 1000 patients."

        I've yet to research MTC stats in Japan, but I suspect radiation exposure levels dating back to WWII very likely display a statistical population-wide predisposition toward the thyroid cancers.

        GLTA

 
EXEL
4.14+0.10(+2.48%)Aug 29 3:59 PMEDT

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