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Exelixis, Inc. Message Board

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  • erniewerner erniewerner Dec 18, 2012 10:38 AM Flag

    OT but Onco related - Liver HCC

    I have a few observations and suggestions for you and that is it. I'm not really interested in Thermodox, and frankly I get annoyed when posters pump other other stocks on this mb. First, Celsion did an interim analysis at 190 events. It failed to show a statistical andvantage for the treatment arm. Interims come with a much more stringent requisite efficacy than final analyses, but 190 events is a large sample. For reference, the Comet final analysis was done at 138 events and had a miniscule p value. That tells you that if T does show a statsig final result at best it will be a single or double, no home run. The market is voting against T. The upside is to not expect a drop in price if the trial has statsig topline results, but the market is saying that the probability is low, and frankly, the market is usually right.

    Now for the suggestions. Figure out who the top liver guys are in the U.S. See if any liver guys are on ODAC and see who is on the HCC NCCN advisory committee. Figure out if any of these guys are publishing T data. If not, then virtually everything you can find out about T is probably coming from Celsion and the inventor of the process. If that is the case, it makes for a slanted story and it makes it hard to get an objective opinion from someone who has access to all of the data. Are there any randomized results or is it all single arm comparisons to historic data? These are suggestions and rhetorical questions, not an invitation to debate the drug or company. Good luck.

 
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