"Oncothyreon Announces that L-BLP25 (Stimuvax®) Did Not Meet Primary Endpoint of Improvement in Overall Survival in Pivotal Phase 3 Trial in Patients with Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer"
Big news at ONTY. Lots of lessons here and I will repeat a number of things I have posted here in the past.
-Cancer immunotherapy has not come of age yet. I am convinced that the approach most likely to succeed has more to to with addressing tumor induced anergy than antigen presentation.
-Backing by a big pharma is not a guarantee for success. Merck KG has thrown a lot of money at ONTY failures, first Theratope, now Stimuvax.
-Chasing subgroup data is risky. ONTY/Merck focussed on a specific subgroup from large phase two trial and hoped that the efficacy demonstrated was not random.
-The ONTY Y mb has a cult like feel to it. Make your investments on based on logic, not faith or loyalty. Seeing "I believe in" or "long and strong" or "can't miss" should be red flags. Be dubious and retest your original investment thesis on a continuous basis. That is why I get more frustrated with mindless pumping than rational criticism. I want to hear the negative side, I already know the why I bought the stock.
-Failed interim analyses are problematic. Some studies do fail an interim and succeed on a final, but a failed interim should not be discounted.
-The two thirds rule is in effect. That is the haircut I expect ONTY to take today.
-Biotech investing is risky. More money is made short than long.