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Exelixis, Inc. Message Board

  • stock766 stock766 Dec 27, 2012 8:14 AM Flag

    EXEL is a low investment risk

    According to Credit Swiss, based of current FDA aproval for thyroid cancer, EXEL target price. This provides a low base for its stock price and reduce the risk in owning the stock. The fact that EXEL has an approved drug, indicate that the compound is safe and can pass the FDA process on safety grounds. Since the phase 2 independent studies for ovarian and prostate cancer were very encouraging suggests that the upside potential for sucess in phase 3 strudies is high. My confidence is even higher since these studies were carried out by two different clinical development teams. Hence, compared to investment in biothechnology companies, the available information about EXEL provides an investment oppurtunity with a relatively low risk.

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    • Credit Swiss target price based on the already FDA approved indication is $6.00.

    • "The fact that EXEL has an approved drug, indicate that the compound is safe and can pass the FDA process on safety grounds." Safe is a relative term. The MTC indication has a low hurdle for a drug to be considered safe enough for approval. The existing standard of of care (Caprelsa) has all of Comet's limitations plus a black box warning for QT prolongation and it can cause a skin sensitivity condition that can be fatal. Don't get me wrong, there are substantial advantages associated with all new approvals being based on a supplemental application, but each new indication will come with a a different standard for acceptable toxicity based on alternative treatments and state of disease progression.

      • 2 Replies to erniewerner
      • Ernie: With MTC compounds, researchers now have more base markers. In this area, research medical teams have level one concerns with eclampsia, hyercalcemia and reactions to tacrolimus and cyclosporine. Some medical research companies including many of the large drug companies will try to slide MTC, but not EXEL. EXEL has talent behind their walls and I can't wait to see results coming.

      • Thanks ernie! Season's greetings.

        If you didn't have anything nice to say you should have a had another eggnogg and kept your opinions to yourself about this guy's low risk assessment but, of course, we know your agenda.

        He didn't say anything crazy and he didn't have any wild predictions but you had to chime in with your negative assessment. I doubt that you're short but I think you're trying to buy back shares you sold 30 days ago(tax losses) for as low as possible. Don't bother to attack me (put me on ignore if you like), there's only one way you're going to change my opinion of your agenda and that is to stop being so damned negative all the time. I know I'm an unabashed bull on EXEL but I occasionally post some of my doubts and negative feelings.

        Live a little ernie, say something nice about EXEL!

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Didn't I hear this this somewhere before from many postings here?? LOL. Low risk for a biotech with huge upside. It doesn't get better in terms of risk reward in this sector. It's that simple. Playing for a few pennies when upside is multiple dollars at any time for people who claim to follow this sector? Trade away. I repeat, this is an investment biotech, where you buy, accumulate and hold. It has characteristics which extremely few biotech situations are blessed with, and on top of that, huge short position. Whether it represents the funding groups shares, or real short positions, is not that important, because in either case the stock either is not hanging over the market or needs to be bought to cover. Let the short term games make you big money as EXEL rolls out , this is cheap and looks to move way higher.IMO

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

4.69+0.36(+8.31%)May 5 4:00 PMEDT