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Exelixis, Inc. Message Board

  • wilderguide wilderguide Dec 30, 2012 5:28 PM Flag

    Why you should ignore the pumpers, detractors, & me


    *Over the past two years, institutional holdings are up from 68% to 88%.
    *Insiders are buying at current levels.
    *Cabozantinib is now an approved drug with a healthy & growing clinical interest.
    *Exelixis has an additional partnered compound w/ Roche and has begun P3 trials in melanoma.
    *Exelixis has a multi-tiered, partnered pipeline.
    *Many of the current Cabo trials are being paid for w/ gov't funding.
    In other words, the NIH recognizes it's clinical potential.

    Do your own DD. Anyone that would buy or sell based on the recomendations to be found on a Yahoo Message Board is a likely candidate for "Halfwit of the Decade"...

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    • I agree. I lost a lot of money listening to the message boards when I started investing. I think its a big joke now. I hope what comes around goes around.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • Nicely laid out, Wilder. But you conveniently forgot to include the 10 ton gorilla that is sitting on the CEO's face (Goldman is the gorilla). Yes, that is just as important as what you listed as "bullish" reasons to buy.

      You've waited three years or more along with Ernie with absolutely nothing to show for whats another three years? I get it. You are a "long term" holder. You will continue to come here on this in an day out...just as you've done over the past three years and post your reasons why EXEL is so undervalued here and how the rest of the world cannot see it yet except you and a few other "long term holders" of the stock here.

      You will continue to see the PPS languish, spike here and there, only to to be sorely disappointed as the stock some how, some way, manages to slide lower yet again toward its three year lows. Well, now you know why the PPS continues to do that. It is 100% controlled by hedge fund with deep pockets and I've told you that for a long time. Yes, EXEL can be traded and I've done it many times very successfully for hit and run profits. Did I bat .1000? No sir...but .750 ain't bad!

      Just my .02 bits...which ain't worth much..hehehehe

      • 2 Replies to nomad_celcius12
      • "...the 10 ton gorilla that is sitting on the CEO's face (Goldman is the gorilla)." The problem with conspiracies is that if too many people know, sooner or later it will leak. I still think the lunar landing was filmed on the moon, the Navy did not shoot down TWA 800 and Elvis is really dead. Yes there are hedge funds short EXEL, but they are not being controlled by the very entity EXEL has retained as its investment banker. GS has had a series of tell all whistleblowers and none have indicated wrongdoing as far reaching as you attribute to them.

        "...along with Ernie with absolutely nothing to show for whats another three years?" Mea culpa. Guilty as charged. I jumped in with both feet 2 years ago, about the same time you showed up. Frankly the mood now is more like that in the summer fall of 2010 than the winter 2011. I take that as a plus. I read more about my impending losses and how my investment is dead weight than about the takeover next month. I agree that we are rangebound for a while, but I have referenced the "Gods of Irony" before. Just as soon as I trade out of EXEL, the takeover will be announced, the stock will be halted and I will be locked out. I'm not going to let that happen. I've spent too much time and energy doing DD on this company and drug to risk being on the outside. If anything, the story is better now than it was when the stock was north of $12.

        "Yes, EXEL can be traded and I've done it many times very successfully for hit and run profits. Did I bat .1000? No sir...but .750 ain't bad!" I'm sorry, but claiming a track record retrospectively just does not cut it. We watched you take a 2/3 overnight haircut on KERX and you were the guy advocating shorting EXEL at $4 and every additional 10% up for "easy money." Your also the guy that bragged about making money on both the short and long side and then claimed you had never been short. If you want to start from scratch and call your trades real time, then we can keep score.

      • $$$$

        Hi wrote:
        "But you conveniently forgot to include the 10 ton gorilla that is sitting on the CEO's face (Goldman is the gorilla). Yes, that is just as important as what you listed as "bullish" reasons to buy."

        I began buying EXEL in October of 2010, which was the last time any substantial insider purchases were reported. I bought in right behind Director Dr Lance Willsey. Two months prior BMY had given cabozantinib back to Exelixis and the stock tanked badly. By the time PPS recovered into the low $4's I had scaled in to approx 4500 shares.

        That November, Cabo's bone effect was reported. The stock ran to $12/share and I dumped half my position at $11.81...keeping roughly 2200 shares into the decline following the Goldman $11 offering. Like many longs, I thought a buyout was inevitable. I still feel this is the most likely long term outcome.

        All the while the stock climbed from the $4's to over $12...I took note of your endlessly pessimistic overtures on this message board - much like you are doing now. Have you conveniently forgotton that??

        I realize we are rangebound for the near-term. Unfortunate but true. However, this contrived valuation is just that - a manipulation. The Cabo story remains as intact as does the science.

        When the Japanese earthquake/tsunami/ nuclear fiasco tanked the US markets... I added substantially to my EXEL position. I trade occasionally, but you are correct in that I have chosen to accumulate EXEL. I admire the science.

        If you are to accuse anyone of selective, self-serving needn't look past your own bathroom mirror. You did exactly what you are doing right here, right now during the entire winter of 2010 - 2011..while the stock price broke upward into a triple and you were exposed along with your many aliases - banzairacer, bushido, et al...
        Did you forget this already? Poor memory...or memory of convenience?


    • Wilder, you forgot to mention the January effect, tax selling ends today(Dec 31) and Jan 1st should see a signifigant lessening of selling pressure and bounce upwards. How high depends on today's "cliff dive" avoidance efforts.

      Happy and healthy New Year to all !!!!!!!!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Isn't this what I have suggested many, many times? Do your DD! For the reasons you list as well.
      As for price predictions by me or anyone, especially short term, just opinions. They are far less important than the outcomes, as the share price follows success, regardless of the twists and turns. In other words here, holders prevail big time as/if CABO expands into many huge markets and applications, as many believe. The key here, IMO, is to carefully examine the unfolding potential and ask oneself the odds of success. When you see a drug or treatment get approved it greatly reduces the odds of rejection for other applications. Why so? Because of course no application will be submitted unless indications are good, while what is most often the rejection issue, the safety component, is not going to pose anywhere near the risks since as an already approved product, safety has already, for the most part passed. No way to spin this, as that is fact. Time is your friend here, not your enemy, as are volatility and pull backs as long as the key ingredients keep showing progress and results. Fact as well. Of course so many are caught up in the flavor of the moment, they lose focus completely and are then even more likely to be swayed to sell by nonsense and emotional frenzy. Here, focus again is key. My position, rock solid on the long side, and any suggestion by anyone to the contrary is pure B - S. Why? Simple. I did my DD and all I see is everything rolling out positively. And again. LOVE the short position, whether true shorts or hedged financier, as it is a plus for me an investor either way, as previously explained.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to buysignalinvestments
      • $$$$


        You've become such a notorious "stretcher" of reality, that you can not be considered a useful contributor to this - or any - stock info messaging system. I have been long tempted to ignore you for your contemptively silly posts wrt trial successes - but have put up with you - thinking that you are a fool onto yourself. Who believes your rants? I can barely stand to read your stuff...

        This type of message board doesn't need BS salesmen. We need reality-based facts. New information. Useful insight, not proactive blather. Please don't make me ignore you.

5.72+0.25(+4.57%)Nov 30 4:00 PMEST