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Exelixis, Inc. Message Board

  • buysignalinvestments buysignalinvestments Jan 18, 2013 9:14 AM Flag

    EXEL getting ready to take out the shorts?

    CABO approved This franchise drug owned 100% looks like huge winner.
    Partnerships and deals which could yield up to 5 BILLION dollars.
    Has never failed to trade above $6 every year for over 10 YEARS. Now under $5
    Huge cash position net of ANY and ALL debt. Great balance sheet.
    Cash flows on approved drug start THIS year.
    No leverage on company from death spiral type of deals.
    Large short position now, whether a hedge or naked means potential for very big moves up. As
    it appears little chance for naked shorts to cover without pushing up price sharply.
    This stock is a screaming buy for investors, especially those willing to hold through volatility.
    Check out the above with your OWN DD and do as you like.
    I am long with a large core position. I do trade EXEL, in my trading account, when the shorts push it down to my trading buy points. Why not? If they want to make me money, I do not moan about it, I take advantage of the situation. Done it multiple times to date, and expect it will continue, although with an up trending bias over the next while. I NEVER sell the core and add to it when I think the price is way too low. I never would short this stock. That is, at this time, from my point of view the absolute stupidest choice of them all. Why? So many over priced stocks out there, with little chance of huge upside moves. Here. Any day, you could suddenly be faced with a takeover bid, news on trials, partners, payments or deals which could gap this up multiple dollars. Chance of same on downside VERY slim. Why? CABO ALREADY APPROVED. Not like we are waiting for safety data, its all about expanded use AND progress on many other fronts. Most of which are not even considered by many here.
    My opinion: heads to $8 to $12 sometime this year. Over $6 much sooner than later. Lets see who has it right. You can quote me on my short term opinion, right or wrong. BUT REMEMBER: I am here as a LONG INVESTOR. Which means my REAL focus is on how this unfolds over next YEARS, not minutes, days, weeks or months. Nomad and like say I am working for some Hedge Fund that is short. If that makes ANY sense, then seek help with Nomad. He, as a short here, is going to need it!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • well it better BIG news and compelling but at 42.60% ownership by SHORTS

      they own this company! and the Hubris guy

    • Well put but you have been touting EXEL for a year now and I have seen nada. In October you said $10.00 soon...did you mean October of 2015??

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 1 Reply to teedubbs00
      • That is the difference between short term speculation/calls and investment outlook over medium to longer term. I am the first to say that short term calls, like all calls are just opinions, and more than not wrong. So take any, including for sure mine, with a great deal of skepticism, but I say consider all arguments in any case, within your own DD and opinions.
        The situation here is actually not that complicated IF YOUR FOCUS IS THAT OF AN INVESTOR.
        Far more hard to read short term.
        Why? Lots of game players, traders, vested interest groups, and option strategies at work here short term. However, if you like this sector, one can also say, that this is a very good, if not the best, in my opinion, situation for risk/reward over next couple of years. If you look at the results to date, the approval of a drug, where the future market upside is huge, while approval for those increased markets is far greater than normal, because it is already approved and thus safety not such a big concern, coupled with many other developing partnerships and products, this has what anybody in this sector would seem to want. High percentage chance for big moves up, with far lower chance than ever normal for failure. As well you look at balance sheet, which is excellent. No cash squeeze here.
        So think about it. Short term, at literally any time this year, you could get a buyout offer, news from partners, news from results from many (not just one area) , expanded use of approved product and more partners or deals. What bad news could you get? Ask yourself after doing your DD. So the stock can gyrate around the games, but I am of the opinion that the odds are so strongly in favor of this just unfolding favorably, that you buy and accumulate and just wait. Does it gap up dollars tomorrow? Maybe. Does it move up dollars over the next couple of years? I think so.
        So again: forget ALL the short term calls, because NOBODY here KNOWS. But if you like to trade biotech, then this is a candidate, because the potential for short term stuff is definitely here, with all the risks. Put another way. On any good news, this could move up very sharply. Any doubt of that?
        Medium or longer term: any biotech investor should own this in their portfolio, in my opinion.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • busysingalinvestments:
      Just like you I am long with substantial amount of core position (more than 50K shares, all in cash account), and I am also side trading on dip to average down my cost. I fully agree with you about the potential of EXEL. With Cabo's approval, ongoing clinical trials, as well as favorable experiences/comments from oncologists, PPS's take off is just a matter of time. one year? two years? I do not know. But I know the time will come. Time is on long investors' side.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to metropath
      • Yes. Folks can try and spin this situation on the negative side, but any DD indicates odds for a big win here drawing closer by the day. Too many things going right, no cash worries, great balance sheet, all drug candidates seem on course for wins, and the approved product for sure, and partnered deals about to generate cash flow. Then there is the obvious lurking, probable and large potential for huge increase in indicated application over wide range of major cancers, with that already approved product. Where can you find this? You are hard pressed, as I see very few rivals. There are others with potential, yes, but less than a handful with all that EXEL has going for it, and in their cash position. To top it all off, EXEL has either naked shorts, about ready to get creamed and if the case create a big short squeeze and drive the price up, OR stock which potentially overhung the market in effect already sold. Take your pick, both good for longs.
        And as also pointed out, the chart for TA guys, going back over ten years, has not had a single year where the stock did not trade above $6 . Check it out if in doubt. We are under $5 now with the company in better shape than EVER.
        Result: my opinion, this can't stay down without some really significant bad news for very long, and I think the news for all of this year will be good, if not great. The stock trends far higher this year.IMO BUT NOT WITHOUT VOLATILITY.
        Over next few years, if not bought out for large premium, soon, definitely heads into double digits, with a great chance at 5 to 10 times current price and cap.IMO
        Now I like the odds I see here. That is why I am long. Its cheap now, downside little if anything, and even if so, for a very short trader minute or two. A screaming buy.IMO

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • "Just like you I am long with substantial amount of core position (more than 50K shares, all in cash account)"

        Of course you are!! Only 50k shares?? L-M-A-O!! Ya gotta luv it!!

        Metropath has been around for a while. Check his history. Grade A "turd" ;-)

    • You are such a #$%$ You aren't fooling anyone SHORTY. On ignore you go.

 
EXEL
4.13-0.12(-2.82%)Aug 19 4:00 PMEDT

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