Does anyone remember a movie called "Flash of Genius"
It was about the guy who invented the intermittent windshield wiper blade, he presents his idea to Ford, and they think it's wonderful. They string him along for years with dreams of wealth for his invention, and then miraculously they come out with it on their own. They ended up paying him a pittance and made a fortune for Ford. They basically stole his idea (invention) and got away with it.
EXEL is the guy who invents the intermittent windshield wiper of cancer and big pharma is Ford. They're trying to make sure they don't have to pay EXEL the true value of what the COMETRIQ franchise will be worth.
Will they get away with it? Their plan seems to be working to perfection.
How does EXEL extricate itself from the jaws of big pharma? An activist investor like an Icahn or a Daniel Loeb (who saved YHOO from it's own incompetent management) has to take a position large enough to make the street take notice. Otherwise it will tread water for years until we all give up and sell to big pharma for a pittance.
Random thought before leaving for long weekend. Have a good one, and let's hope next week is better.
"How does EXEL extricate itself from the jaws of big pharma? An activist investor like an Icahn or a Daniel Loeb (who saved YHOO from it's own incompetent management) has to take a position large enough to make the street take notice."
I wrote that about an hour before the Meditor news was released, talk about premonition. Although, not known as an activist firm, Meditor is known to be a repository used by second parties to accumulate stock of target companies. This news could lead to an eventual takeover by big pharma at a discount of it's real value or it could be a passive investment by a risk tolerant fund manager, averaging down and reducing his cost basis, which would trigger nothing. It does, however, reduce the public float, making it tougher for shorts to cover their bet.
In any case, I think this will be a short term catalyst, and combined with all the recent positive press, maybe we can crack through the self imposed 5.30-5.50 resistance (congestion) created by the secondary last year.
I do not agree with your last little story at all. First, you compare a product which a guy invents, but is never for sale, with products here that are for sale. Next you act as though "big pharma" are all in it together. They are actually in severe competition with each other. The truth is very simple here. There appears to be some manipulations, I agree, but the outcome will differ hugely, from your little story, as the products are now coming on stream and many more in the pipeline. As well, this is a public company, so anyone can jump in, at any time and buy. If you are so nervous, and do not see a bright future here, which I do, then sell. There are all kinds of other companies. I see the story unfolding completely differently.
Some play, frustrate folks like you into capitulation, just like happened at HGSI, then the price either trends up or explodes up. Timing: could be at any time or a bit protracted, but for sure we get some action this year. Play it anyway you like, but I say, accumulate, ignore being frustrated by putting yourself in the position of being so. Learn to love their games, an profit from them. IF you want to trade this, I see it as a sort of slow rhythmic trade. You buy when it is between 4 and $4.50 or so, and just wait. Does it take minutes, days or a few weeks to rise? Do not know, but look at chart, if a trader. Never in ten years has it not gone above $6. Look at cycle. Now. I have the big core, and will wait. If they drop it down sharply one day to lower end of the range I just mentioned, I will buy and wait and sell it back to them. That is my take and for long term investors. This is not a wind shield wiper story, its a great biotech story unfolding. Do not get fooled by the short term volatility, the CABO Franchise and lots of other stuff is worth billions within a very reasonable time frame..IMO