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Exelixis, Inc. Message Board

  • investforgood investforgood Feb 21, 2013 8:55 AM Flag

    Opinions please. IS EXEL a buy at this level?

    I have 2-3 year timeline, maybe even longer for my retirement fund. . Seems EXEL may be a good buy for the longer term.
    I would appreciate any and all opinions whether I should buy at this level. Thank you in advance.

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    • Nobody respects the EXEL pipe.....

      In December 2006, we entered into a worldwide co-development agreement with Genentech for the development and commercialization of GDC-0973 (XL518). GDC-0973 (XL518) is a potent, highly selective inhibitor of MEK, a serine/threonine kinase that is a component of the RAS/RAF/MEK/ERK pathway. This pathway mediates signaling downstream of growth factor receptors, and is prominently activated in a wide variety of human tumors. In preclinical studies, oral dosing of GDC-0973 (XL518) resulted in potent and sustained inhibition of MEK in RAS- or BRAF-mutant tumor models. Exelixis discovered GDC-0973 (XL518) internally and advanced the compound to investigational new drug, or IND, status.
      Genentech paid upfront and milestone payments of $25.0 million in December 2006 and $15.0 million in January 2007 upon signing of the co-development agreement and with the submission of the IND for GDC-0973 (XL518). Under the terms of the agreement, we were responsible for developing GDC-0973 (XL518) through the end of a phase 1 clinical trial, and Genentech had the option to co-develop GDC-0973 (XL518), which Genentech could exercise after receipt of certain phase 1 data from us. In March 2008, Genentech exercised its option, triggering a payment to us of $3.0 million, which we received in April 2008. We were responsible for the phase 1 clinical trial until the point that a maximum tolerated dose, or MTD, was determined. After MTD was achieved, we granted to Genentech an exclusive worldwide revenue-bearing license to GDC-0973 (XL518) in March 2009, at which point Genentech became responsible for completing the phase 1 clinical trial and subsequent clinical development. We received an additional $7.0 million milestone payment in March 2010.
      Preliminary results from BRIM7, an ongoing phase 1b dose escalation study conducted by Roche and Genentech of the BRAF inhibitor, or BRAFi, vemurafenib in combination with GDC-0973 (XL518) in patients with locally advanced/unresectable or metastatic melanoma carrying a BRAFV600 mutation were presented at the 2012 ESMO Annual Meeting. As disclosed on (NCT01689519), a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase 3 clinical trial evaluating the combination of vemurafenib with GDC-0973 (XL518) versus vemurafenib in previously untreated BRAFV600 mutation positive patients with unresectable locally advanced or metastatic melanoma was initiated on November 1, 2012. On January 14, 2013, we received notice from Genentech that the first patient was dosed in this phase 3 pivotal trial.
      Under the terms of our agreement with Genentech, we are entitled to an initial equal share of U.S. profits and losses for GDC-0973 (XL518), which will decrease as sales increase, and will share equally in the U.S. marketing and commercialization costs. The profit share has multiple tiers--we are entitled to 50% of profits from the first $200 million of U.S. actual sales, decreasing to 30% of profits from U.S. actual sales in excess of $400 million. We are entitled to low double-digit royalties on ex-U.S. net sales. We also have the option to co-promote in the United States. The co-promotion option would allow us to provide up to 25% of the total sales force for GDC-0973 (XL518) in the United States. We must exercise the co-promotion option within 12 months of receiving notification of the first patient dosed in the first phase 3 clinical trial of GDC-0973 (XL518). Our receipt of the notification of dosing from Genentech on January 14, 2013 triggered the beginning of the period in which we can exercise our co-promotion option. As a condition to exercise the co-promotion option, we must have the capability to co-promote, including an adequate internal sales and promotional infrastructure, and an experienced internal oncology sales force. If Genentech terminates the co-development agreement without cause, all licenses that were granted to Genentech under the agreement terminate and revert to us. Additionally, we would receive, subject to certain conditions, licenses from Genentech to research, develop and commercialize reverted product candidates.

    • a symmetrical triangle (refered to as coil) with low volume (refered to as the quiet before the storm) has formed in the past several months. The trading range has been narrowed to 4.7- 4.8 near the breakout point. Next couple of days will be very interesting to see the breakout direction!.
      If you do not have psotion yet, I will recommend you taking position after today's earning call on either directions.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • If you are looking for advise from MB you don't belong in the market

    • Looking at EXEL from the perspective of imminent retirement? EXEL is an interesting speculation. It has decent technology; it has passionate believers; it has focus on alleviating a health issue that, if its product gets market momentum, will result in substantial material gains; it has money in the bank. OTOH, it is a startup pharmaceutical company in a business where lots of smart people with lots of cash are competing for just a few prizes.
      I'd say: don't wager the food & shelter stake on something like this. Set yourself some extravagant goal, like a luxury cruise around Antarctica, or aerobatic training in a high-performance glider. Then fund that at a 10% level, calling it your Dream Portfolio. Then, if the stars are with you, you can raise a glass in celebration as you cruise/soar/whatever, and enjoy what your risktaking has brought you.
      In the meantime, get on Social Security, get any health problems attended to, pay off the mortgage, and enjoy the spectacle.

      Hope this helps.

    • Yes!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

6.300.00(0.00%)2:43 PMEDT