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Exelixis, Inc. Message Board

  • wilderguide wilderguide Feb 21, 2013 10:55 PM Flag

    Near as I can tell, they didn't give us much...

    $$$$

    I figure the NPU program will give Cabo some early Euro exposure, and might entertain some clinical endorsement in the process...likely a god thing. But - more importantly - figured I'd post the following warning shot from the 10K. Can't say they didn't give us fair notice...

    "We anticipate that our current cash and cash equivalents, short- and long-term investments and funding that we expect to receive from existing collaborators will enable us to maintain our operations for a period of at least 12 months following the end of 2012. However, our future capital requirements will be substantial, and we may need to raise additional capital in the future. Our capital requirements will depend on many factors, and we may need to use available capital resources and raise additional capital significantly earlier than we currently anticipate."
    GLTA

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    • "likely a good thing" a positive...

      • 1 Reply to wilderguide
      • Wilder, duckduffer and enabler discussing the in's out out's of capital needs...PRICELESS :)

        For once, Wilder actually has something right...and that is EXEL will, without a doubt, do yet another secondary. The company already has 120 million shares out...what's another 100 million? Newsflash! The clowns who run the company never have and never will have your best interest in mind. You see, they get paid regardless of how much they dilute and will make out like bandits way down the road should any buyout present itself, leaving you high and dry. Seen it more times than I can remember. And THAT, my dear friends, is why having a SOLID MANAGEMENT TEAM at the helm of a company is actually MUCH MORE IMPORTANT than the PRODUCT they have to sell when it comes to INVESTING LONGER TERM in said company. You folks simply cannot grasp that fact and as such, will continue to languish in your "LONG TERM" investment play.

        I said it when MM first took the reigns and I'll say it again...he is WAY, WAY out of his league when it comes to playing CEO of a blockbuster company. The astute investment community knows it...and that's why there are 40 MILLION shares short with no fear whatsoever. Game. Set. Match.

        You didn't listen to me and that's fine..I'm just a dumb TA guy. However, your MISTAKE was not listening to the most knowledgable person on this board IMHO...that being none other than the original ONCODOC..("The Whiz"). You fools chided him every single time he pointed out FACTS and gave his UNBIASED, OBJECTIVE opinions on what was happening with the co. and its drug pipeline. Look at you three genius's now...three+ years later...with nothing to show but your daily obsession with the message boards of a company you are married to emotionally (as is evident by the daily posts by wilder).

        GL guys :)

    • Boiler plate, wilder, they have to disclose the potential need to avoid liability. The key words in the quote are "may need". They did say they expect to have $400Million by the end of 2013.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to enabeler
      • $$$$

        "...we may need to use available capital resources and raise additional capital significantly earlier than we currently anticipate."

        It's the cavalier use and placement of the word "significantly" that is troublesome. This senior management team is not developing a recent history of effective, shareholder-friendly public offerings. If they do another offering prior to a commercially viable Cabo label expansion, we all get burned. JMHO
        GLTA

    • "However, our future capital requirements will be substantial, and we may need to raise additional capital in the future. Our capital requirements will depend on many factors, and we may need to use available capital resources and raise additional capital significantly earlier than we currently anticipate."

      Let's talk about the money side of things. The common thread to EXEL's cash strategy is that they like to maintain 2 years of burn in liquidity. Current burn is about $200 million per year. Ergo raise cash again when liquidity drops to $400 million as it will at the end of 2013. They have a few options for raising cash, they can do a private placement, do another offering similar to last August, borrow the money with an equity sweetener, or monetize GDC 0973. The timing is such that they will be at a decision point on 973 anyways. Their choice willl likely be driven by the existing stock price, something which they have some control over. For instance, if they are looking at doing an offering, they could make some of the data they are holding back public. A late breaker at ASCO or ESMO for statsig MTC survival would help. My presumption being that data is positive enough to cause an adjustment in the perceived probability of successful outcomes for the pivotal trials. The drop today is obviously a reaction to last night's conf call. The cash burn is high, results are still over a year away, the eventual need for more capital is clear and the proposed pivotal expansion is what I would term low risk/low reward. There will soon be four ongoing pivotal trials aiming for 3 indications. Refractory CRPC, refractory HCC, and refractory RCC. It needs to be remembered that from a revenue perspective, refractory indications are much smaller than frontline indications. With each successive treatment step the patient pool shrinks and is generally suffering greater morbidity and can tolerate each new treatment for a shorter period. So lets assume a successful outcome for each of the three new indications: salvage CRPC, HCC and RCC plus the already approved MTC. Put all four together and EXEL will cover all of its costs and be a profitable company. I haven't done any research into this other than a vague understanding that Sorafenib (Nexavar) and Sunitinib (Sutent) are each billion dollar drugs based on frontline HCC and RCC respectively. As I said the drop off in revenue from frontline to 2nd line is considerable. So I would expect EXEL, based on the indications it is aiming for, to turn a profit of $300 milion plus or minus a couple hundred million. The real pay off comes from moving from a salvage indication to a frontline indication or in collecting more of the low fruit in other salvage indications, refractory Ovarian, Occular melanoma, DTC, etc. We'll see what happens.

      • 1 Reply to erniewerner
      • "Put all four together and EXEL will cover all of its costs and be a profitable company. I haven't done any research into this other than a vague understanding that Sorafenib (Nexavar) and Sunitinib (Sutent) are each billion dollar drugs based on frontline HCC and RCC respectively. As I said the drop off in revenue from frontline to 2nd line is considerable. So I would expect EXEL, based on the indications it is aiming for, to turn a profit of $300 milion plus or minus a couple hundred million. The real pay off comes from moving from a salvage indication to a frontline indication or in collecting more of the low fruit in other salvage indications, refractory Ovarian, Occular melanoma, DTC, etc. We'll see what happens."

        I would guess $200 million in each indication.

        Afinitor did $250 million in 2010, approved for 2nd line RCC in 2009. Afinitor also indicated in some other orphan indication ( guessing at least $200 million in worldwide 2nd line RCC.

        Sorafenib patients in HCC are only on drug for 3-4 months, and am guessing 2nd line may be larger than $200 million worldwide.

        CRPC indication Cabo vying for is salvage stage, but I give them some credit for AR drugs moving up.

        I haven't really looked to deep yet at market potential in these indications, but have started. I mostly wanted to post this to get me motivated, and a reference to start posting later. I don't know how you feel about Exelixis's decision to run 2nd line vs Afinitor, and use CRADA for initial 1st line data vs Sunitinib in phase 2? I happen to like this particular strategy, and would guess this gets Cabo on the market in relatively much faster timeframe to help financially move this development machine further.

    • Wilder,
      Are you positioning for a buying oppty. That was purely boiler plate. Here's the expectation for cash from Karbe "And finally, we expect to end the year with approximately $400 million in cash." That's without a sales component figured in for Cometrique in 2013...none. My guess is we have seen the last painful dilution, anything from here on out, would align more closely with the value of the company. JMHO

      GLTA

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • this is from 2012930 10Q:
      As of September 30, 2012, we had $674.7 million in cash and cash equivalents, marketable securities, short- and long-term restricted cash and investments and long-term investments, which included short- and long-term restricted cash and investments of $40.2 million and $82.9 million of cash and cash equivalents and marketable securities that we are required to maintain on deposit with Silicon Valley Bank or one of its affiliates pursuant to covenants in our loan and security agreement with Silicon Valley Bank. We anticipate that our current cash and cash equivalents, marketable securities, long-term investments and funding that we expect to receive from existing collaborators will enable us to maintain our operations for a period of at least 12 months following the end of the third quarter of 2012. However, our future capital requirements will be substantial, and we will need to raise additional capital in the future. Our capital requirements will depend on many factors, and we may need to use available capital resources and raise additional capital significantly earlier than we currently anticipate. These factors include:....
      from 2012 0330 10Q:
      As of March 31, 2012, we had $332.1 million in cash and cash equivalents, marketable securities and long-term investments, which included restricted cash and investments of $4.2 million and approximately $84.5 million of cash and cash equivalents and marketable securities that we are required to maintain on deposit with Silicon Valley Bank or one of its affiliates pursuant to covenants in our loan and security agreement with Silicon Valley Bank. In February 2012, we raised approximately $65 million in net proceeds from a public offering of our common stock. We anticipate that our current cash and cash equivalents, marketable securities, long-term investments and funding that we expect to receive from existing collaborators will enable us to maintain our operations for a period of at least 12 months following the filing date of this report. However, our future capital requirements will be substantial, and we will need to raise additional capital in the future. Our capital requirements will depend on many factors, and we may need to use available capital resources and raise additional capital significantly earlier than we currently anticipate. These factors include:...

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Of course, MMM and company also will need many more hefty raises and bonuses!! They WILL need more money to fund all those perks!! It looks like MMM is no different than a Wall Street hound! His long hair hides his skull!! No wonder the share price can't reach $5.00!!

    • Lets hope that they speak to Cator Fitz about using CLDX's strategy for raising equity with minimal dilution. They have done it multiple times. Brilliant. Otherwise, expect them to release data at ASCO, watch the stock rise again to $6.50 or more and then get ripped off again by Goldman and their friends by driving the stock down pre-public announcement, then announcing the offering only to drive it down further again to the low $4s or lower. Just like last time. I swear to you, if they do that again, I am out with my 22k shares, and MMM and the so called CFO should be fired.

 
EXEL
1.51-0.02(-1.31%)Oct 1 3:59 PMEDT

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