I happened to see the statement where ernie posted where the Company stated that more cash maybe needed in future to carry out the Company's Trials. Ernie stated that the Company will need more money. Well ok, they probably will need more cash as time goes, but there can always ba a partnership who can take them to the finishs line without Diluting. So what about that Ernie? Ernie also stated no income from Cometrix in Europe and any sales around the US. Well? May I ask Ernie if the Company will just manufacture Cometrix and give it away free all over the World? I for one would think that Cometrix may bring in revenues in due time to help offset the balance sheet. Another thing I noted, No statement from ernie regarding any Partnership payout from Roche, BMY, or any other Partners to finance EXEL without diluting shares. I truly thinks that Ernie have not told all facts about Exel's potential at this stage for a Complete buyout. I also wondered why Institutions keeps adding , Insiders are buying again and CFO have made purchases in Open markets. With 90 % Institutions holding something is amiss, and we will find out in a very short time.
As-Salaam-Alaikum Abu. You have brought up some very good questions, let's look at them.
"....but there can always ba a partnership who can take them to the finishs line without Diluting." I do not think EXEL wants to partner Cabo. EXEL has positioned itself to be bought by another company. There is more than one kind of dilution. All four pivotal trials will end at roughly the same time, more or less late 2014 or early 2015. EXEL will need cash at some point between now and then. Partnering Cabo before the full efficacy of Cabo is apparent would in my opinion entail selling the company's single most valuable asset at a considerable discount. EXEL chose a long time ago to take Cabo all the way through clinical development on its own. The three year agreement with SOBI is another indication of where the finish line lies.
"Ernie also stated no income from Cometrix in Europe and any sales around the US. Well? May I ask Ernie if the Company will just manufacture Cometrix and give it away free all over the World?"
Even though your question was ironic in nature the literal answer is that yes, initially EXEL will give away more Cabo than it sells. The drug will be available under a preapproval Named Patient Use program in Europe which will likely not cover costs and EXEL has post-approval clinical trial commitments to the FDA that need to be completed. I will quote those for you: "We will also conduct a Phase 2 study comparing a lower dose of COMETRQ with the label dose of 140mg and this study will evaluate safety and progression to pre-survival in MTC patients. Additionally, we will conduct two clinical pharmacology studies , further assisting the pharmacokinetics of COMETRQ. One will address the effect of administering COMETRQ in conjunction with agents that increase gastric PH such as proton pump inhibitors and the other study already ongoing will #$%$ the pharmacokinetics of COMETRQ in patients with hepatic impairments." These clinical trials will compete with retail sales for a combined US/Euro market of 1000 patients that already has an approved treatment available. Cometriq will replace Caprelsa as the treatment of choice, but it will not be an instantaneous process. There will be revenue from commercial sales of Comet, but it will be modest and offset by cost of goods and should also include the cost of the post-approval clinical trial program which instead will be shown as an R&D expense.
"Another thing I noted, No statement from ernie regarding any Partnership payout from Roche, BMY, or any other Partners to finance EXEL without diluting shares." There may be some milestone payments in 2013, but I doubt if they will be as large as the bill EXEL will receive from Roche to exercise its copromote option in the US for 973. That is why I think monetizing 973 will be given serious consideration.
"I truly thinks that Ernie have not told all facts about Exel's potential at this stage for a Complete buyout."
If you were to read ALL of Ernie's posts I think you would realize that he does provide a balanced and comprehensive viewpoint. When Ernie does post something that offends the sensibilities of those who do not want to consider the bad with the good, he does not feel compelled to attach a series of references that will guide the critical reader to those posts that provide a more sanguine outlook to offset any indigestion caused by his opinions and observations.
Walikum Salam ernie. I am just so curious as to why you think that Exel will go it alone? I really do not believe that EXEL will pass up on a few Billions. With Roche as a partner, I suspect that Roche may become its acquirer. As for Cometric for Thyroid, I cannot see why they would give it away without any returns. Doesn't make any sense for spending so much money to give away for free. I am confused as to why so many Institutions are holding and the Recent Insiders who purchased recently????? Why could it be that so many are adding shares and are hoarding shares???? So many things that can happen beside Diluting as Company trials comes to light. This Company have dilute enough already and the stock stinks. Either we are too Optimistic on Exel's and Mike Morrison is just flat out lying towards Investors . CEO stated he is working on shareholder value, I wondered which way is he looking at it The stock stinks since he has diluted 2 times un less than 1 year. I see no shareholder Value for the past 2 years. Is this CEO a lying Moron? Sure looks like if he canno't get a partnership done. As for giving up something with a Partner, it is probably the best thing rather than diluting shares.
"Well ok, they probably will need more cash as time goes, but there can always ba a partnership who can take them to the finishs line without Diluting."
And that partner won't want anything in exchange for helping finance the trials? You peckerheads don't seem intellectually capable of absorbing the plain and simple fact that there is no free lunch. Someone has to come up with more money and wholever that is they will want a pound of flesh in return. Forget about dilution. You clearly don't even understand what it means. I would prefer to be given the option to buy new shares before others are brought in and I have participated over the years in a couple of such offerings. However, then you have to come out of pocket ...no free lunch.