Trend is still intact, though not awe inspiring. The hedge is slowly coming off. Must be pretty frustrating for the funds at this pace. Look at the daily volume. Quite a challenge to cover a huge short position while keeping the PPS down at a desirable level at the current daily volumes. Days to cover has gotten ridiculous.
Another thought on the SI. Now that we see the declining SI trend is intact, but the confirmation is so small, I wonder what the magic timeline is for covering this short hedge position. In other words, if I'm a Master of the Universe for a fund, by what date do I believe I need to have this short position covered. My WAG is by ASCO (May31-June4). Which means they need to stir up a bit more volume on the retail sell side. Hence I fully expect a bunch more FUD over the next couple of months from such reliable sources as The Street, Motley Fool, FlyontheWall, etc.
I would target ESMO 2013 at the latest. Barring surprise interim results, partnering, etc...
We'll have more complete info as EXEL will likely annouce ASCO abstract submissions sometime in the next 60 days.At the last conference, I believe MMM mentioned he would announce when they were certain which abstracts had been accepted. I'm not expecting anything earth-shattering at ASCO, but the clinicaltrialsdot gov site has displayed a lot of recent recruiting activity in Comet 1 (avg 1 additional recruitng site/day between 2/7 & 2/25..!!)...with lots of Feb updates to NCI P2 signaling trials...and the Abi/Cabo P1 should have some preview of results by year's end. A synergystic partnering w/ JNJ in CRPC would conclusively knock the wind out of the short thesis...laying all argument to rest.
This is all about patience. Patience w/ EXEL...patience with trial results...
...and patience w/ all these knuckleheaded message board terrorists that obviously are beginning to recognize the need to cover...
They can't remain blind to the declining short interest...can they?
Based on the numbers you produced "slowly" doesn't do it justice. More like glacially. What levels had short interest achieved prior to January? Do you have a link to previous months so the trend you're pointing to can be examined by those of us who are relatively new to EXEL? I would love a nice short squeeze and this one certainly sets up as having the potential for being a doozie but based on the scanty evidence evinced in your table there isn't much sign of an imminent squeeze.I'll check NASDAQ and see if I can find it on my own and try to produce it but if you have it handy it would be much appreciated if you could provide it. Thanks.