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Exelixis, Inc. Message Board

  • xwavve xwavve Mar 17, 2013 10:23 PM Flag

    Very Little Cash

    Adjusted current debt, EXEL has a low cash balance. 1) EXEL will either have to dilute 2) partner cabo 3) sell the company in the not too distant future. With the market likely to deteriorate, if mgmt are sane, they will sell the company into positive interim data. No secret, the cash predicament, they have already lost much of their leverage. Cabo the blockbuster is likely to belong to someone else. Let's hope MM's delusions of grandeur find gravity.

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    • I am more care about how much EXEL will earn after Cabo approval for mCRPC, mRCC, etc. Just for the sake of 28,000 death for prostate ca in the US, and most of these patients will end up with bone mets (99%). If they stay on Cabo for 2 months or more. The PPS of EXEL will easliy move to 30 to 40. Cabo has huge potential in the coming year. Patient is the key IMHO.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • *sigh*
      In business accounting 101 you do not merely subtract cash from debt.
      The debt is ong term financed, the issue is "cash flow" for the next 1-3 years, that is all that matters.

      I know many of you "investment experts" like to blast MM as a dope, however, I think he and their managment are playing a fine game of chess.

      • 5 Replies to oncodoc02138
      • Well, I do like the cash, but don't like the excessive dilution that MM used to get it. It was poorly planned and executed and is why we are stuck in the mud and I am underwater. I think CLDX has the prototype for how a biotech should raise cash and look at that stock run 6 weeks after its latest capital raise.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • Agreed. EXEL has about 170m in cash, and spent 123m last year, so they have enough cash for about 16 months if you don't include any revenue from sales of Cometriq.
        The Comet 1 trial is supposed to be complete in March of next year, Comet 2 should wrap up in June of next year. If you allow for 4-6 months of data analysis I think they have it mapped out pretty well.
        We should also get another look at the bone scan response later this year, which if positive should move the share price up.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1) EXEL is required to keep a minimum cash balance on deposit 2) There would be no money left at the end of 2014 for an effective launch 3) Back to the options. 4) Shareholders will make money in a buyout, including insiders - but they've lost their leverage on the big money. Hope for a break with the COMETs or NCCN.

        It is a function of cash minus debt -- you eventually run out of money. Kinda like the fiscal crisis, eh?

      • Amazingly, he is likely in a win win situation. If he gets some money flowing from international partnerships, the short hedge will melt away, we will be financed to profitability and the share price will rise. His other option is to sell the company.

        The key is the deals. If they don't come soon, we are for sale.

        Sometimes I wonder if he's just the toady.

      • Onco how can you say anything positive about MM market up about 10% thus far this year and exel barely up 6c

 
EXEL
4.14+0.10(+2.48%)Aug 29 3:59 PMEDT

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