A number of convergent events are coming together for Exel.....ASCO is somewhat seasonal and we see a run up in anticipation, but more importantly I see the elucidation of the mechanism of action as being highly significant. The naysayers who falsely claimed that bone scan changes were a mirage are quietly being put to rest. Secondly, I see Dr Scher update as being highly significant and there are very good reasons to believe that the preview of Comet 1 re OS will be favorable...this will establish further support I believe and allow EXEL to raise out of the quagmire it has been in for the past few years. I view Cabo as a new and improved avastin with multiple applications positioned in the context of multi modal therapies
Wow, the trap is being set for the bulls and/or bears!
There hasn't been this much enthusiasm since the Nov 2010 release of images showing disappearing tumors (for which we now we have a legitimate scientific explanation), but the convertible financing makes it seem that 5.40 is a brick wall. Although, if OS preview is positive will a couple hundred million dollars of converts mean anything?
Provided preliminary OS results are good in their Phase II's indications which haven't advanced to Phase III yet, it would be a good take over target since larger companies would have the money to push through advanced trials in other indications to collect those revenues in the US and EU much sooner and before patents expire.
These additional streams are something that is currently impossible for existing EXEL shareholders to realize and worth quite a premium to larger bio-techs so it's win-win. Without any news of an offer, there probably will be a pull back at some point because the street wants to see revenues and it'll be a while before EXEL delivers.