I appreciate the autopsy that's being done on AVEO. It appears the vultures at the Plaintiff's Bar may have a case. I have assumed that the sudden and dramatic drop in EXEL's share price was related directly to cabo's being a MET related drug and it was therefore unfairly painted with the same coarse brush as Tivo. Is that your assumption as well?
I also assume that there is enough difference in the 2 drugs , and hopefully in the 2 management teams (although that remains to be determined) that we shouldn't be overly concerned about drawing parallels between the 2 situations??? If that is the case, and assuming there is no negative news next week we may hope that rationality will return and the share price rebound ( who really knows?) as we head into ASCO?
My simple mind remains focused on 2 things:
1) The drug has already made it through the FDA approval once. That's, to me, a very significant fact.
2) The CT scans of patients suffering from horrific bone mets improved so dramatically post cabo that I can't believe the FDA will deny patients and oncs this tool to improve the quality of life , if not prolong life itself, absent a rash of AE's which now that they have reduced the dose to 60mg. I don't think is a serious issue anymore. To my knowledge there is no other therapy that can consistently provide this kind of relief.
I would appreciate any comments and insights. Thanks.
"I have assumed that the sudden and dramatic drop in EXEL's share price was related directly to cabo's being a MET related drug and it was therefore unfairly painted with the same coarse brush as Tivo. Is that your assumption as well?"
I won't pretend to understand all the motives that drive the market, but I try to pay attention to as many trends as possible, if only to prevent being blindsided by my own zealous ineptitude. JMO, but I think the two are unrelated. Besides, as I understand it - the primarily intended targets of Tivozanib are VEGFR1, 2, & 3.
Another of the MET inhibitors I follow (MGCD265 - mf'd by Methylgene TSX:MYG) was up 10% yesterday. I regard MGCD265 as one of the closest MET-class inhibitors of the Cabo-targeting genre. It will likely finish up some clinical P2 workups in combination w/ both erlotinib and docetaxel in advanced malignancies and NSCLC later this year. Early preclinical workups and human studies results have thus far been encouraging, but the program is years behind cabozantinib. Nonetheless, I watch it - not only for it's future investment potential - but because of crossover market perceptions that may be created wrt other inhibitors of the same class.
I was just attempting to explain (guess at) the inexplicable. It was a big move down on the same day that AVEO was getting crushed and I know of no other news that would have caused the air to come out of the stock. It could be just a coincidence or perhaps someone big wanted out...don't really remember what the volume was but I think it was big. In any event if it was AVEO I find that comforting as I think a sale of EXEL based on the AVEO problems would be misguided. If it's not AVEO related then I guess I should go back to biting my nails.
In addition (if you are not already aware), I encourage you to check out the lengthy work that our mCRPC ASCO presentor has conducted wrt CTC reduction as a predictive marker for OS. This alone should assuage your apprehensions. Dr Howard Scher has spent many years in supportive research of the clinical viability of CTC enumeration as a surrogate for overall survival. Cabo's predictive effect on CTC counts is in absolute alignment with his thesis.
On this topic, he has published many times. I encourage you to check out his work.
A simple Google of the Dr's name & CTC enumeration will bring you more data than you can read in a week's time.