Since the April high of 5.30 we have had a series of "lower highs" and a clear down trend during a roaring market highlighted by some very spectacular moves in biotech, but EXEL seems to be stuck in the primordial tar sands of bad timing.
The last lower high was at the 4.84 level and my conclusion is that we need to close above this price to "break" the down trend. This would not constitute a "breakout" unless accompanied by much better than normal volume. I am trying to stay away from signifigant news events like a partnership or takeover
The regulars here know all the fundamental analysis available and seem to be prepared for the Comet results (as am I), but meanwhile unless we "break" the down trend the trading range(4.36-4.84) is now even narrower than it was.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
"The last lower high was at the 4.84 level and my conclusion is that we need to close above this price to "break" the down trend. "
"This morning I unloaded more than half of my position as I expect the next few months to be stagnant. This probably clears the path to the basket for the rest of you(LOL)."
Now all you have to do is complete the dunk.
A close above $5 will lead to an immediate test of resistance at 5.28-5.39. If we get above 5.40 the danger will be that MMM decides that he can go it alone and raise another half billion $'s, and by going to the well one more time he and EXEL might be the greatest winners of all, or we might all be buying airfare to Cabo with our own money.LOL
"A close above $5 will lead to an immediate test of resistance at 5.28-5.39."
Not a bad call eh? it'll get a bit tougher here leading up to the ER and a 10% pullback after earning release would not surprise me unless some game changing news item is released.
Enabeler, not sure you are making sense. The close on Thursday, the day before your post was higher than the price you claim on Friday was required to "break" the downtrend. You said "the last lower high was at the $4.84, while Thursday was at $4.88 and Friday was at $4.91. I stick with my trade position, and would not sell a share of the core. EOS
I hate to oversimplify this trading range conundrum, but since we have discussed it at length on this board, here's a reiteration. There has been a trade since the offering last summer referred to as "convertible bondholder arbitrage", in which the convertible holder short sells below the conversion price, without fear of being caught in a squeeze. This enables them to buy/short/buy/short rinse and repeat all the while lowering their cost basis on the convertible itself. This appears like it will continue until a catalyst comes along that has enough volume to break this play. Now that this play has occured consistently for nearly a year, traders (several who post here) have jumped on board. This has caused the range to narrow as each time they have to jump ahead of the other guys trade to make it work.
So the point is...don't get too stressed about the action here until we see something that should cause a real move in the PPS. Comet or other clinical trial readouts, partnerships, asset sales (GDC 0973 as an example), etc.
On another note, the valuation of ONXX is definitely an interesting to compare. Their current valuation of 10B seems very strong when compared to EXEL. But then the same could be said for MDVN and it's 4B valuation. Remember CABO is 100% owned by EXEL. Similar to ONXX's Kyprolis. EXEL has other compounds like GDC 0973 that are partnered similar to Nexavar for ONXX and Xtandi for MDVN. I'm not saying you could really side by side these two companies, but I am saying EXEL has assets that could enable a comparable valuation in time. Numerous posters have commented that the market is not reflecting the true potential value of EXEL's assets, even with a risk discount applied. It's been commented that the current valuation only reflects MTC. While that can be frustrating for longs, it's also what makes for bigger returns when the market sentiment swings the other way. Remember how quickly things changed when the bone scans were first released.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
If you couple these downtrending observations with an observable decline in short interest, what can you infer? If shorts have indeed been covering, should not the SP be trending higher?
Wilder, just got back from some R&R w/o internet and after reviwing last week's action I have to infer that the recent down trend is now broken and a slightly new trading range will ensue. Volume is a reflection of some hedged shorts deciding they've had a nice run and maybe the t/o talk is real after all. A takeover (while always possible), seems a little unlikely as the recent advancements in small molecule targeted cancer therapy seems to be leaving cabo at the alter.
The final OS #'s for EXAM may be about ready for release and the minor short covering may be reflect a leak to the hedge fund community.
This morning I unloaded more than half of my position as I expect the next few months to be stagnant. This probably clears the path to the basket for the rest of you(LOL).