What drove the PPS of EXEL to $5.49 (7/22) during the period? Apparently it wasn't short covering. What then drove the PPS of EXEL back down to $4.81 (7/29)? Apparently is was a significant amount of shorting. So what is the impetus of this action? Was the increased shorting a defensive action, keeping the PPS from rising high enough to force a huge short position liquidation? Or, did short sellers see the increasing PPS as an opportunity, trading near 52 week highs? We know that volumes during the period were more than double the previous average. Does that favor one hypothesis over the other?
Either way you slice it, there are now 4.5M more shares short. Place your bets.
I will not "bet" either way currently. I will stick with the to date 100% winning trade, which is, in case some of you got swept up again in the latest bounce, Buy only when below $4.60 and sell on bounces like just now in the $5 range. Hold a core position which can be built from the trading profits. All the rest HAS NOT WORKED. That is reality check. Do as you like. Did I mention "The Trade" requires disipline, not emotional trading on conjecture. So right now you would be in cash on the trade here, with a core position held.