Why you own this stock (or should) and why you don't (or shouldn't)
Most people here are prettyy smart, most try to inform, most are civil, with the exception of a few who for the life of me I don't know why they waste their time posting anything at all if only to look at their anonymous inflated internet beer muscles..or maybe tell mommy they finally made it. In any event, I suspect that most of the smart people fall into 2 camps. Long investors or traders. I read all these posts about how Morrisey is a #$%$, Morrisey this, Morrissey that. And how this stock is manipulated by I guess Darth Vader or some sinister entity conspiring to undermine only you. Blah bla blah. Fact is this is a small Pharma company. They have no huge recurring revenue stream, they aren't manufacturing cars, candles, cell phones, or oil drilling equipment. Whatever revenue they have is thru some license deals, partnerships, whatever, and their primary purpose is to keep the lights on. If you are long you own it for one reason..betting that in 2014 they 'cure' cancer. Nothing is going to happen that will move this stock significantly higher until then. And if you are trader, well this is a good trading stock, up down, up down. So the traders should let the longs be, and vice versus . We are both in this (or out) for differnet reasons..
In the long camp. Primarily intrigued by the mechanism of action of cabo (worked w/ a wide spectrum of kinases while in biotech). Started my position 2 months back -- didn't expect much til Q2 2014, but AM a bit disappointed by the lack of reaction on positive news. Manipulation's alive and well.
I am long.
2014/2015 will be important...
This is a small company with a future dependent upon yet to be realised data.
Everything else is noise in my opinion.
In my opinion I think they are firing on all cylinders at this point.
The only reason I have been with EXEL since pre-$10 pps is because Cabo works and it was shown in early studies and now validated by its efficacy in MTC- one of the hardest cancers to treat. Yes, EXEL botched the study, tried to convince the FDA ina non-conventional way, and could not agree to the terms of SPA etc etc and wasted a lot of time before it finally started the pivotal P3 trials in CRPC and other solid malignancies. All those issues are now behind us and we are less than 6 months away from realizing the fruits of our beliefs and perseverance. However, if anyone is waiting until the release of P3 results to jump in..you will pay a lot higher price..that;s for sure regardless of teh outcome of the trials.
I believe the results will be positive and Cabo will be approved for CRPC and other solid tumors, but the pps will move a lot higher in anticipation -easily upto $20 by the end of Q1, 2014! Just look at what CLDX has done over the last 12 months! And it does not even have any approved product! This is not to poo poo CLDX at all..in fact I was in it for more than 4 years and sold the shares too soon, about 9 months ago to invest in arena and sqnm..and have regretted it quite a bit. I am not gonna let that happen with EXEL....one of those few hidden gems (and unloved by WS). Its day will come and is closer than anyone thinks...