Let's first go back to EXAM. We need 55 more events after June, 2012. If the exponential curve held, we would reach that point before Dec 2013. It seems EXAM will last for a few months. If cometriq really did extreme miracle for the rest of patients, we may have to wait 10 more years. That a good thing, we already got approval anyway.
COMET-1's interim trigger is 387 events. We reached full enrollment on Sept 2013. Enrollment started long before that time. If we didn't get 387 on March, there is no chance we will get 578 on June2014. And we will cross our collective fingers wishing not getting that result on June. It will be a funny and worrisome waiting, waiting for something to come that we wish not to come so soon.
The new availability of Xofigo and Xtandi to all patients might lengthen median survival in both arms of the trial. Still, even assuming very generous survival rates on the control arm and that we should be getting prompt notification of any news about the interim, I'm hopeful that the numbers are good since we're about the pass the end of March.