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Exelixis, Inc. Message Board

  • stocklooking stocklooking Apr 10, 2014 1:11 AM Flag

    boring, do my final exam

    Waiting is a boring game, wanna check to see if I am too old to do my final EXAM preparation.
    Assumptions: 1) both placebo and dosing branches population decay at their own rates as they were from 4/5/2011 to 6/15/2012; 2) no dropouts; 3) no secrete crossover by patients.
    T0=0; 4/5/2011, population of cabo group 153, population of placebo group 81
    yc = 153exp(-Kct), yp = 81exp(-Kpt), y = yc+yp, where exp(x) means x power of e
    T1=436; 6/15/2012; yc = 116; yp=52
    solve Kc, Kp
    Kc = -ln(116/153)/436 = 0.00063497
    Kp = 0.0010165
    T2=970; 12/1/2013; y = 113; 55 events, ie, we reached 55 events on 12/1/2013.
    T3=1000; 12/31/2013; y = 110;
    T4=1090; 4/1/2014; y = 103; 65 events, 10 more than needed.
    Apparently, my assumption didn't hold. Unexpected drop out rates due to cabo approval and marketing after Jan2013? Estimation of Kc and Kp were too high, so there were less events happened on one or both branches? Since at T1, we had a low yp=52, little change of Kp wouldn't make a big dent in y(T4). Looking back before T0 and after, Kc's decreasing was more trendy and can make big difference with a factor of 116.
    Anyway, before the actual data come out, anything is just a guess.

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