They will have to have a amazing quarter just to keep the stock at this level. Since the income is use related, it will be a slow ramp. The user learning curve will be a lot slower than anticipated. BTW check deposits are down 6% Y/Y and are headed for zero as check usage drops 5%/yr. Who gets paid with a check---only those without this service. Good luck I am goodbye today for a few quarters.
My understanding is that Mitek is selling blocks of usage. To me it's like a plan for a mobile phone. For a month you get x minutes to use and you pay for the x minutes in advance. It is not pay as you go.
So banks starting to ramp up will have to buy a block of transactions and then replenish when they use up the transactions. So I can see that this quarter might be pretty good and the next quarter could disappoint a little if banks haven't used up their initial blocks.
But I am not 100% sure. Someone correct me if I am wrong.
As far as the user learning curve goes, I really doubt that will be a problem. The application is very easy to use. My mother might not be able to use it, but she won't be buying a smartphone anytime soon. I believe smartphone users will not have any trouble figuring it out.
I do believe that check usage will drop over time. But it will take a decade or more before checks go away. In that time Mitek will have figured out what else they can do with their technology.