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Almost Family Inc. Message Board

  • citiccgirl citiccgirl Mar 16, 2009 12:09 PM Flag

    Cover AFAM shorts, because the rest of the group is coming back

    look at LHCG (steadily going up every day)...AMED off day low...GTIV off day low...

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    • You're right - level II shows that there was a single large seller - otherwise it would have been an up day consistent with the other home health care companies. Good catch Seven! Tomorrow we should be ahead of the general market as we catch up.

    • There is a motivated seller in the market at present. This will pass and the relationship with the other stocks will normalize.

      Keep in mind that LHCG, which is still cheap, sells for nearly $4 more than AFAM, despite AFAM's higher level of earnings and AFAM's higher growth rate.

      • 1 Reply to sevenrightout
      • I added at 17.35....AFAM is easily pushed around by the shorts due to it's low float. They feel safe and in control. Keep in mind that even if their our cuts for Home Health care, they will not be until 2011 or 12.AFAM is grossly undervalued.home health care providers are part of the answer not part of the problem. For an industry average $150 per day they enable shorter hospital stays, stays that cost THOUSANDS of dollars per day. Obama will come to his senses, and the shorts will be caught. Even worst case below!

        Wosrt cas scenario...Jeffries..their analysis of the EPS impact of the worst-case 2011 reimbursement scenario suggests that last week's sell-off in AFAM, AMED, LHCG, is indeed overdone. Firm cuts their AFAM tgt to $32 from $60, AMED tgt to $53 from $78, and LHCG tgt to $28 from $42.

        04-Mar-09 07:32 ET AFAM Almost Family beats by $0.06, beats on revs (18.10 )
        Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.62 per share, $0.06 better than the First Call consensus of $0.56; revenues rose 84.4% year/year to $66.2 mln vs the $59.7 mln consensus. "Our success during the quarter was highlighted by 84% total revenue growth and 47% growth in our VN segment. We have been extremely successful during the year rolling out our Senior Advocacy Mission to all of our existing and a branches."

34.85-0.74(-2.08%)Feb 8 4:00 PMEST