BTW, take a look at FXEN's weekly chart. We are in the process of making the handle on a long-term cup. As you know, I love cups. They are by far the best formation to trade, but they don�t come along often enough. The textbook buy signal would be a break above $5.72 the right side of the cup...Weekly cup formations are rare, especially long term ones formed like FXEN's. This gives me great comfort in my holdings when you have strong underpinnings like this weekly. Should we break out on the weekly, we will be in for a very large and long lasting move, likely well into the double digits. This move may very well correspond with well results, but I'll leave that talk up to the experts. When you get a chance take a look at that weekly chart, it�s very nice to look at. I wish I had 10 charts like that one let me tell ya. Happy Trading.
Many here talk about TA and how it will point the way. Can you believe that TA could be used to shake many weak hands from their positions? I do.
I would not be a bit surprised to see FXEN trade lower before any well annoucements and if she does it could accelerate due to many getting itchy feet about the well prospects. Some might think the smart money might try to hedge their bets...just in case the well is not what many hoped for. It will take a longer term view to remain bullish in the face of near term price swings should a final shake out come into play. Buy what you can afford to hold on to for the next six months and you will not suffer the mind games of any BS trading tactics.
If you are a trader here...disregard this entire post! You should be more than capable of handling yourself and rightly deserving of any gains or losses
bottome line: you are the Captain of your own ship
Cup: Don't misunderstand me. I enjoy your analysis and thoughts. I've never paid much attention to TA and I've learned a lot from your posts. Very interesting, in fact. And, I agree with you that when this stock breaks higher, it will spike to new highs. But the reason it will do so will be due to gas in the hole, not some technical analysis magic. Perhaps we are essentially saying the same thing. A way to detect that word is leaking out about the drilling results will be evidenced in the stock price. Likewise, if an announcement is virtually immediate, then the price movement will follow. From a causality perspective, I think what we're talking about is an increase in price driven by the presence of hydrocarbons. TA may provide hints but will not be the reason the stock climbs or falls in the short run.
Again, I enjoy your posts and your thoughts. I just don't think that TA is the engine driving this vehicle! It may be a microscope through which to observe the movement of the stock but it is not the cause behind changes in share price.
You said generally the same thing when I posted saying I would buy at $3.68 see post 3690. Now where you right or was I? My point is, the technicals tell the story before the general public really knows whats going on. That's what I call following the tracks. Don't think that TA can't move this stock...When this thing breaks above $5.10 you watch. Good luck
TA aside, my belief is that the short-term future of this stock price will be driven exclusively by the outcome of the Zaniemysl-3 Well. If successful, the stock will spike, possibly pull back slightly and then continue to climb. If it is a dry hole, then the stock will tank down a point or two and then slowly creep back up as FX prepares for the drilling of the Fences II well(s). The future of this stock in the short run will be driven by the results of drilling, not by TA. Again, I believe that the short-term is very positive for this company. However, there is no way to know this with certainty until the drill bit reveals the secrets of the deep. TA has nothing to do with whether gas will gush from the Zaniemysl-3 Well or not. That's my opinion and I'm sticking with it!
Thanks for the insight! I really appreciate your analysis.
NG remains in the news with NG in NY having its biggest one-day rally in more than nine months on forecasts that a second wave of cold weather may strike the US in the days ahead after the NE digs out from the first big snowstorm of the season. Colder weather and snow is forecast this week for the Midwest, the nation's biggest region for gas used in heating, according to the National Weather Service.
Henry Hub $6.06 and NY City Gate $6.83
Wishing the Best to FXEN and its investors
FYI. The retracement on a cup with handle, from the top of the cup to the bottom of the cup, cannot be more than 50%.
In this case, it retraced from $6.30 to under $2. Not valid IMO.
But we do have a good breakout, on good volume. That should be enough.
FYI---in case you take a look at the FXEN weekly cup forming, I thought I would give you the numbers from my software.
Left side formed 5/04/01 $6.30
Right side 11/07/03 $5.72
Buy signal break above $5.72
Cups that are formed on the weekly over mutiple years can have astounding type moves. I will try to dig up some of my past weekly cups to show you what I'm talking about. Happy Trading