There are many different testing protocols and not being privy to what FX/CE/POGC have in mind would make useless any of my commentary regarding pressures and flow rates. I would need to know choke sizes and a plethora of other information to take a stab at that.
Regarding pay zones at this point, the answer would have to be no. If they are between 2200-2400 meters and still above the salt, then no such zones would be present yet. After the 1st casing is set and the salt has been drilled and the second set of casing is in place and drilling has commenced, then yes, you would expect to start seeing evidence of gas in the cuttings if they are drilling Rotliegendes as predicted. I expected we should be thinking around the first part of the year.
Regarding the question about PR at TD, I would expect the company, as they have in the past to announce that they have had initial flows and will resume a testing procedure on the well. The full testing procedures can take 30-60 days to complete should they chose to do so. It�s possible they will see enough data to just do an abbreviated testing program and get moving on the development well and pipeline and facilities. Given the well control established in the vicinity, I think we can be pretty sure of a commercial well once we have flows and have established that we hit the target. The announcement of pressure testing and flow testing is akin to a drilling success in my book. The DST and logging are going to give you enough information to decide to complete the well and complete a testing procedure. So, if we here they are "testing" that's about all I need to hear assuming we came in high or at the expected TD depth.
New completion techniques are really increasing production rates on Rotliegendes fields. I would not be surprised to see this well produce in the 30-50MMCFD range. Likely a horizontal development well will be drilled in order to better drain the structure. If Hardman is right and the Z well is a 300BCF structure, you can quickly see how you can add huge net asset value to FX shareholders. With 4 more wells in the pipeline outside of whatever CE's plans are, you can see we could add some significant value over the next year. I can see the company adding a TCF or more in reserves over the next 18 months or so. I intend to see this through the next 4 or 5 wells at least before even considering making a sale. I�m thinking $25 plus over the next year is possible. Opportunities like this do not come around very often and I intend to ride this one for awhile. Put it this way. If you had the benefit of getting a 1990 production report from the North Sea in 1980 and had a chance to buy a early Amerada Hess with the benefit of knowing the geology was there�I see FX as an early North Sea player�A $5 option on an analog to the North Sea all over again. That could be worth a lot more than most of you can imagine. Stay tuned this is going to be fun. Walt