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КОрпорация Кодиак Ойл & Газ Message Board

  • winallin12 winallin12 Mar 31, 2013 11:05 AM Flag

    Take your own look at the 2013 1st quarter numbers- I say 50 million in added sales

    I expect the 1 st quarter numbers to be eye popping. The second qtr 2013 not so much. Below are some things to consider then make your own call

    * 4th qtr 2012 averaged 18,000 boepd and had a exit rate around 24,000 boepd
    * the average price for WTI has risen roughly $6 to $7 per bbl for the 1st qtr over the last qtr
    * Check out the Bakken sweet price differential to WTI over the last 2 qtrs, this is a plus to KOG
    * the received price for KOG oil in the 4th qtr per the 2012 earnings report was roughly $83 per bbl. That number should be around $92 per bbl for the 1st qtr. Then add in a very conservative additional 6,000 bbl per day
    * the strike price on the KOG hedges is averaged at $95 per bbl for 2013. Hedges should have minimal impact on the 1st qtr earnings

    I think I am very light on the actual 1st quarter production but lets be conservative. Add the income for 6,000 new bbl and then add $8 to $9 more per bbl to the already existing 18,000 bbl. Then look at earning per share and make your call

    Second qtr will not grow much due to the concentration on the multi-well pads that will not show full results till very late in the 2nd quarter but then the two projects bring their own unique value to the Bakken and KOG

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