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Kodiak Oil & Gas Corp. Message Board

  • lexpress56 lexpress56 Aug 20, 2013 12:36 PM Flag

    Crrrunncherr and playing with numbers

    I know this is an exercise in futility to predict a KOG buyout price, but it is fun to consider. Yesterday, Crruncherr posted his belief: "Based on the results of my number crunching skills KOG's shares should be selling for roughly $23.10." I would be interested in hearing how this figure was arrived at and what some of the other number crunching posters' views are on share value.

    FWIW, if you google BEXP and Devon Shire, you will see his article on the Statoil buyout of BEXP and the multiples involved based on EBITDA, price per flowing barrel, price per proved reserves, and ratio for PV-10. Here is how those multiples play out using KOGs 2Q 2013 numbers adjusted for current production of 34k barrels and $2.1B of debt after recent note placement:

    KOG has 265.5 million shares; it had a 6 month EBITDA of 155m or 310m annually; KOGs production of 23.2k per day avg or 34,000 currently; most recent Proved reserves of 144mboe with PV-10 of $3.2B

    Current EV = 2.6B market cap + 2.1B debt = $4.7B at $9.70 pps
    BEXP $223,810 multiple x flowing barrels at 34K = $7.61B - 2.1B debt = $5.5B market cap = $20.63 per share
    BEXP 16.79 multiple x 310m Ebitda = $5.20B โ€“ 2.1B = 3.1B = $11.68 pps
    BEXP $70 per proved barrel x 144 mboe = $10.08 B โ€“ 2.1B = 7.9B = $36.53 pps
    BEXP 4.27 multiple x $3.2B PV-10 = $13.66 B โ€“ 2.1B = 12.5b = $47.08 pps

    Just food for thought. BEXP had a lot more acreage, but a lower percentage of core Bakken acreage and the BEXP buyout was before the identification of multiple benches and downspacing tests. Interesting to consider how these factors will play into mix. I would love hearing/seeing the calculations of others. Lex

    Lex

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    • I am old and cant add. KOG had Ebitda of 131m in 2Q and 124 in 1Q for a total of $255m for six months (not 155m), which equates to $510m annually. So the second calculation above needs to be modified as follows:

      BEXP 16.79 multiple x 510m = 8.65 - 2.1 = 6.46B = $24.34 pps or about the same as Crrrruncherr's estimated value. Moreover, all four key multiples of the BEXP buyout of Statoil point to a buyout price for KOG above $20. GL to the longs. Lex

 
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