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Kodiak Oil & Gas Corp. Message Board

  • winallin12 winallin12 Sep 9, 2013 1:16 PM Flag

    Kodiak, 1 billion BBL in reserves?

    Its very possible folks if the Polar and Smokey tests continue producing as normal bakken and 3 forks wells. 12 wells at 600,000 EUR. Do the math folks, be conservative, but no matter how you cut those potential reserve numbers add up very quickly

    Then ask yourself, what are 1 billion bbl in reserves worth per share

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    • win,

      I appreciate when someone does the math and makes rational calculations and observations. It seems more than a coincidence that several of the best Bakken operators have recently make big purchases. I suspect they have done the math, too.

      In this price environment, the past couple months have also been a big help toward going cash flow positive, not to mention profits. I have a hard time calculating earnings for KOG, but for some of the others I follow, the analysts' estimates are pathetically low. I expect KOG to blow out non-GAAP earnings as well.

    • So what is everyones long term view on this? Ive owned this since 19 cents and havent sold a share. I believe Hamm is right and the bakken is huge. What type of LT hold is this?

    • Win,

      You and I can compute KOG's value six ways from Sunday and we come-up with mind-numbing figures, but traders don't care about that because they're really smart and they think that we're dumb because they have this illusion that if they can just buy-in, make 4-bits, then sell, or even short the stock, then later on close out the short position and buy back in either with Calls or stock on margin, that they' will monkeys out of us.

      And on paper they will, but it's darn hard to beat a good stock picker based on sound fundamentals and sound fundamentals is what KOG is all about. But never mind that, they will still be in and out and out and in ad infinitum to which I say: Did Buffet and Munger make their fortune this way? Ah but they're not as smart, right?

      When this train leaves the station, we're going to be on it and so will our luggage.

      • 1 Reply to symon_says_
      • Symon, glad someone is paying attention. As always you put this in clean clear language.

        The Billion BBL reserve number for Kodiak is straight forward and I believe actually quite conservative BUT, to accept it you must first accept that the governments estimates on recoverable reserves are grossly incorrect. Feds are saying 3 to 4 billion barrels and have only included the Bakken. Harold Hamm is saying 24 billion bbl for the bakken and as much as 48 billion barrels including the 3 forks.

        So who are you going to believe, the government or the reality of what is actually coming out of the ground?

 
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