FYI, I just looked back at last year's press releases and noted that KOG did not put out any operational updates until Feb 20, 2013 (four days after last year's Feb Options Expiry) when it announced a broad spectrum of updates including increased reserves, 4th quarter volumes, rig counts, and drilling status. KOG then announced its 4Qtr financial results on February 28, 2013.
While I've never thought that "earnings" for an exploration and production is very important, the market does think so.
What I think IS IMPORTANT is how much increase there is in proven, producing reserves, and that should be terrific in year-over-year comparisons. That is the elephant in the room and some investors ignore that at their peril, which explains their "short" position.
Checking-out the January presentation on their website is instructive in all pertinent areas from increases in reserves on a quarterly basis, margins per barrel, their hedging activities, costs declining while production increasing, etc. etc.
All of this and the pps is about the same as it was a year ago.
Question: Does this represent a failure for the company? Or does it represent a failure of the market recognizing a bargain?
It seems that they are purposely holding back on updating reserve valuations for tax reasons. As I understand it, once you book the reserve, it becomes an asset that can be taxed so although an increase in proven reserves might help the stock value and the credit limit it could hurt the financial performance of the company
It is hard to tell who is right, but it appears to me that KOG is being pushed around by market makers and fears that a combination of increased global oil production coupled with a decrease in oil consumption will kill the price.
I looked at some of the discussions on theoildrum. Apparently, a big (Ghawar @ 5MMbopd) Saudi field is running out of places to drill and the existing wells are being depleted.
I'm guessing that oil will remain as a premium commodity for the next decade.