The price drop in WTI will probably go on for a few more weeks, barring any major supply disruptions or a Middle East crisis. In the meantime, refiners are getting their facilities ready to produce more diesel and jet fuel for export. Prices will return to the $100 level before long.
We could all benefit, I think, from reading the latest Motley Fool on projected oil demand in China. Should you think that MF is too ideological or slanted in any way, seek out other reports. They are all pretty much the same--project increases next year by as much as 6.5mm barrels to 10mm per day. Thereafter, the increases will mount steadily to 18mm/day by 2035. I don't know if alternative energies are factored into this, but I suspect that they won't make that large a dent for awhile. Seriously, the thought is ecologically frightening. yet most projections for "global" demand are also quite high.
I think we may be on the verge of an oil glut such as we have with natural gas. The technological advances that we have seen in the Bakken are spreading worldwide.
Asia will never be able to accommodate an automobile culture like that of the United States. If they try to do it they will strangle themselves on their air pollution. Conservation, alternate transportation, and downsizing will all be mandated in Asia as it should also be done here in America.
It take a difference of opinion to make a market......
BTW I am long TPLM and very happy about it.
JR: the latest articles do suggest that many countries have some shale or some oil--but the shale in China is very difficult to drill and very expensive--additionally, the Chinese are five years away from really getting anything decent out of it.
The idea of an oil glut is much more profound than the actuality. Additionally, the USA is way out in front on this, though Brazil has a huge find in deep water (which they will irresponsibly drill.
Nobody has a crystal ball, but Daniel Yergin is the pro on this (look him up on the WEB--yuou will be impressed) and he sees $100 oil from this point on (generally) and he is not predicting a glut any time soon. So-- buckle up friend, and help yourself.
I always like your posts, winalin12, but I think you are wrong about this. The dollar has no contenders; it has loud naysayers in the Chinese, but there are no currencies even close to "trustworthy" that can even approach the dollar. Don't let the the most vicious race of economic pirates that ever manipulated a remnimbi throw you into a panic or a miscalculation.
We are years from an oil glut and years from any real refining capacity. Moreover, we are years from any currency that can displace the dollar.
What people do not realize that oil in the long term will be well over $100. China and India have 2.5 billion people just arriving at the oil consuming party. China has the largest new car market, selling around 17 million new cars a year. The clincher in China is that 90 percent of new car sales are to first time buyers and the first thing these new buyers do is fill up their gas tanks.......................