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Triangle Petroleum Corporation (TPLM) Message Board

  • tzietlow tzietlow Dec 30, 2013 12:58 PM Flag

    re entry point

    Not sure at what price to begin building my position again. I am a strong proponent of TPLM but anyone think we'll hit the 7's this week?

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    • This thing traded 11.66 not that long ago. I think you are being greedy. I bet if it went to 7 you would wait for 6.

    • I'm looking at 8 to start adding, but in small increments as I think one plausible scenario is the stock trades sideways for a few months.


    • just from the daily chart, the previous resistance before the breakout to 11 was upper 7's (6/19, 7/19, 8/8/13), shares could possibly test that support... But, as The Zachs downgrade is based on the big increase in operating expenses (without mentioning that that included a big jump in investment in rockpile) and the miss (without mentioning that the actual growth was huge, or that caliber paid out a fat distribution shortly after the earnigns, ) and lowered guidance (again without noting that the forecast growth still remains quite high)- Zachs is all about analysts raising estimates, so when they lower estimates (even if estimated growth remains high) that triggers a downgrade in their ranking system. But TPLM's growth story still remains intact, barring a big drop in oil prices (w2hich was not mentioned as part of the Zachs 'sell' rationale), so analyst downgrades may represent a buying opportunity. We shall see

      although I do note CEO Samuls sold shares at 9.02 the day before the zachs downgrade last friday, TPLM cash flow does not look impressive, and debt/ebitda of 4.8 (versus KOG's 4.2, AXAS 2.6, SM's 1.3) could make financing expensive for TPLM

      • 1 Reply to bluedreamdreamer
      • Bluedreamer you are dreaming if you think TPLM debt/EBITDA = 4.8X.
        Q3 10 Q: Long Term borrowings on credit facilities = $ 157.8 m
        Short-term " " " " = $ 6.8 m
        TOTAL DEBT = $ 164.6 m
        LESS CASH = $ 101.6 m
        Net Debt = $ 63 m
        Q3 EBITDA = $ 54 m
        $127 m note converts into 15.6 million shares @$8.
        To compare TPLM's pristine balance sheet with KOG's leverage is absurd and to question the company's cash flow is even more ridiculous. EBITDA is annualizing at $216 million current mkt. cap = $ 821 (fully diluted) = 3.8X EBITDA multiple which is a 35% discount to OAS. If you feel you have to post I suggest you get your facts from the most recent 10Q.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • joeepowell Dec 30, 2013 2:48 PM Flag

      guys I just bought 25000 shares. i hope i did not mess up

      • 3 Replies to joeepowell
      • First--I don't believe you.
        Second--I don't care one way or the other
        Third--TPLM is still in its volatile hole so--this is the best time to buy you will ever have. I
        Fourth--I realize some of you think I am harping on an old and tiresome theme, but Justin and TPLM are proving themselves to be one of the most inept mangers of stakeholder relations I have ever seen. He has ignored letters, pleas, and innuendos as systematically as a bung timer in a slaughterhouse. I will say it again--TPLM refuses to play out a communications strategy--it doesn't even have one. Yes--this company's job is efficient and effective production. But anyone who has managed or consulted in corporate American knows that this is best supported by strong communications at internal and, especially, external levels. I declare TPLM to be the most misunderstood small oils and this is doing us no good. G D it!!!! Justin!!!! Get off your fat derriere and do your job!! You owe us!!! You are an employee of the stockhoders!!! Do your G-D job!!!!! And stop expecting praise--TPLM no longer merits acoss-the-board praise and its stockholder relations deserve loud and public criticism!!!!!!!!!!!

      • Did you mean 25 shares???lol

      • you're a jag. no one cares about your lies. and no one cares when you pump and bash the stock based on your current position.

    • daily3percent Dec 30, 2013 1:21 PM Flag

      I dont know.. this downgrade sham didnt work how they wanted it to so I bought 15000 shares today. Once we break 9 again this baby could fly. The wells they are hitting now are the best they had... this is undervalued and it will def run up into earnings

    • joeepowell Dec 30, 2013 1:07 PM Flag

      no way. $8.40 at the most

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