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Triangle Petroleum Corporation Message Board

  • fritzdutchrio fritzdutchrio Jun 4, 2014 12:01 PM Flag

    I thought TPLM was being bought out... acquistion target. so i am buying on any dip here.. has had great

    earnings and in the center of what could easily be a takeover!! Target of $13 a share

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    • It could happen longer term and would be a nice kicker, but 13 would be quite a bargain if it is just cash! I'd rather see KOG offer a 1:1 share of KOG for a share of TPLM. Then you can still grow your initial investment. However, IMO think of your core investment as one of growth based on the fundamentals of TPLM executing their business plan and over achieving analyst estimates of performance. If the next quarterly report just meets expectations, their may be a little pop. But they need to really exceed expectations with the constraints of "weather, pricing, etc." to move the stock above "10"! Unfortunately, without great news and a choppy market in the short-term the least path of residence is to 9. On great news we might see 11. Suggest following the board and read some good posts from Fab and Marvin to curb your takeover exuberance!

      • 3 Replies to gpg39
      • It is quite an assumption that the shareholders would approve of a deal like that. TPLM is a better value than KOG. I have sold most of my KOG.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • I agree that a good value range is 12.50 -13.00 today. Forward 1 year and with tailwinds rather than the headwinds we have been running into I can support a thesis of 18-20 a share. I really do not think a take over is a likely scenario as the NAV while good is it good enough to support debt and or potential dilution at this point ? I do not believe it is. Likely in the future with incentives in place to divest of Rock Pile and Caliber that these will happen. This will reduce debt and could put the entire company in play. I really invested here for the "Triangle Benefit " of three entities to drive the enterprise value. I still believe in that thesis and have bet heavily on it. I sold early on at 11 as the value target that I had placed when it was in the 5-6 range had been achieved. I bought several times on the pull back and now have a green over weight position. I would like to see a steady increase rather than a pop and drop pattern. I do believe that may happen. I am using a calendar stop to manage the trade as I see very little safety risk . I do believe the best is yet to come and time is the leverage . A quick trade ? I don't think so at least for me. I like the idea of a stock with a GPE around 4x for a playout. I am not negative but in fact wildly bullish but these things take time and the world economy and oil pricing is important to my thesis. Strong buy accumulate up to 12.50 would be my call and then hold for up to 1 year to see if this plays out as I see it.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • gpg39,

        TPLM and KOG merger is interesting and 1:1 share is fair. Why not? IMO, both companies together will have synergy. Perhaps, someone with credential get both managements together to explore that possibility.

        IMO, earning reports on 6/9 will have enough positive news to boost pps higher. I hope for great news to boost it above $11.


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