Hi Friends... For a last many days I am reading the comments on CDNS. I agree there is problem. However, still I don't think Cadence deserve such a low price. I am sure, Cadence worth much much more than its current market capital. Here is my analysis on Cadence based on the facts: I have worked for Cadence, I am Cadence tools user in a big design company and I have many friends in the industry using EDA tools from various vendors.
Technology: All EDA companies are nearly equivalent in terms of technology. In some areas, SNPS is slightly better, Mentor in some. Cadence's Virtuso is market leader in custom IC domain. NCSim is known to be fastest simulator. Formal verification and SoCE is also reputed tool in digital IC domain. Allegro has been most advanced PCB design tool. Pspice has known to be standard analog simulation tool. Other Cadence products also have good reputation in the market.
Innovation: People should understand EDA is not like other software products. They are very complex and bigger in size. For a new breakthrough technology, big R&D investment is needed. Mostly such innovations are done in partnership with some big design companies. In current market situation, design companies are not willing to fund the innovations. Hence EDA companies including SNPS, MENT, LAVA are suffering. Still Cadence has come up many innovative products like C-to-Silicon, Allegro system architect, RF-SIP etc all in recent times. Slowly they are getting market but due to poor market conditions, design companies are not so keen to invest in new technologies.
Current situation: Yes, there were many decisions made by Mike Fister and his team which are responsible for such conditions. Mike was not a good businessman but I think he was better in terms of technology. He wanted to develop technology in Cadence itself rather than acquisitions. I don't think attempt to buy Mentor was Mike's decision. It might be BOD who wanted it.
What cadence is doing: I think now BOD doing right things. There were problems in the accounts (It was Bill Porter again!!!), they came up and declared. They want to correct it. They have removed the top management team and now trying to build up cadence again. Shareholders may feel that Cadence is going to die... but I think its going to re-born.
Current Market value: Currently cadence market capital is much less than 800m. But I believe Cadence deserve much more than that. I think they have good amount in cash reserve. They were trying to buy Mentor in all cash. They had some money and remaining was loan. Since deal was failed, Cadence have money with it. Cadence's technology is still there, loyal customers are there, new releases are coming out. They have largest EDA product portfolio.
Bottomline is that, the stock price in market is not the correct indicator of the company's health. I am sure, as the things are stabilized, Cadence will see price more than $10. At current price, cadence stock is too cheap and will turn out to be good investment opportunity.
Some of what you say is correct however you missed many points. CDNS needs to replace or remove mid-level managers. These are the people responsible for day to day execution. In many cases they have failed. You also need to understand that semi will never be the same as the good old days. Design starts which drove revenue will never see 10K again. Also, migration to smaller technologies which drove retooling will never be a certain bet. How many designs need to be at 45? Not many. To conclude the accounting mess must be untangled. If it is systemic the company is in very big trouble.